My 1st Million At 33 – yes, you can do it too

Slowly through each wave of rise and fall, markets are revealing where the capitals are concentrating. The market leaders are no longer US, Japan, nor Europe, but Brazil, India, China, and Taiwan.

US market is facing heavy pressure again today. S&P 500 has broken support at 1080/1085, and then 1065/1060. The technical pictures are simply getting worse and worse. However, that is not so for Brazil, India, China, Taiwan, and other southeast Asian markets. They are far above July low by some 10%. The good news is that I believe these market leaders are not forecasting a repeat of depression, or a serious bout of recession. The bad news (for more mature markets as to emerging markets) is that the better days are not for us.

Going forward the stock markets will be increasingly selective. Given the extremely low interest rate environment, there are LOTS of hot money trying to find a home. But it’s probably not going to be in S&P 500.

I have been sitting on about 40% in cash (double at the “normal” 20% for me to compensate my high volatility stocks), trying to avoid a big fall that may have come. The last market drop wasn’t that big. In fact, it has risen back to about the mid-point of the trading range.

I’m guessing that for the next month until about mid-September, markets will stay in the bullish trend, possibly challenging the last high set in May again in all markets. When US dollar falls, it is good for all markets. Definitely you should keep an eye on Euro.

I’m going to pick up a few beaten up stocks here and there. It’s still not too late to buy something for your portfolio.

It may be difficult to fight off the deflation mentality out there. But I know in my guts that eventually the resolution is definitely inflation. This is not 1929-1932 anymore. America is not Japan either. A debtor country (USA) cannot afford a deflation. Besides, we’ve got helicopter Bernanke hyper-actively working overtime at every deflation scare.

Dear good people with conscience,

It is 4:30am in the morning on Sunday. Still waking up from my midnight prayer to God. Just the thought of the incredible amount of pain and suffering that these infants and cancer-sick people need to suffer bring tears immediately to my eyes. LOOK AT THE PICTURES!

We, as the nation of the most mighty military on Earth (at this moment), have dropped tons of depleted Uranium bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan along with Britain, and helping Israel to drop the same bombs in Gaza, causing not only birth defects in Iraqi infants above, but also serious health hazards in Iraqi civilians and US soldiers. After all, depleted Uranium has a radioactive half-life of 4.47 billion years, just about the age of Earth which is 4.54 billion years, and will continue to be radioactive for billions of years to come. USA manages to kill people who are yet to be born for the next 4.5 billion years. That is a WAR CRIME against humanity.

USA fights Iraq to find Weapon of Mass Destruction (WMD), but instead we are the ones who used these WMD. We are requesting Iran to comply not to develop any nuclear weapons, but instead continue to allow Israel’s refusal to sign on anti-nuclear treaty, and secretly develops nuclear weapons. Those are hypocrites at their best.

The world and this country needs to come to the recognition of truth. The real terrorists are USA and Israel. How does the third building World Trade Center #7 free-fall without a plane nor any debris hitting it, while in human history NO steel-made high-rise buildings collapsed due to extended fire? Why were steel structures melted (at above 1200 Celsius) when the open air burning temperatures of Jet Fuel is only 288 °C.

Forget about any evidences, and just think logically. How can 3 WTC buildings collapsed in a free fall fashion without the bottoms being knocked out of it? Just try that with toy blocks, and it will be quite obviously to you. For it to free fall, the only possible way is that you start by knocking out the most bottom block, and then the next one, and then the next one. Any other ways of falling will cause the toy “building” to fall to the side, instead of vertically free-falling to the ground.

Just a short message on stock market. If S&P 500 doesn’t hold 1040/1050 today or through this earning season, then I will turn bearish again. Holding at this level is critical to paint a chart of higher low than the last low at S&P at 1010.

Markets have been extremely volatile. It’s best to step aside. Volatility is often a sign of nearing the big moves either way. Betting money before the market make up its mind can be hazardous.

Best luck.

Frugal at 1stMillionAt33.com

Markets have dipped and then came back since I last commented. For the short term (months), I am moving my bearish stance to neutral because markets have moved beyond the Fibonacci levels. Staying on the sideline in this volatile market is probably the best bet for now. One should use small trading size and take profits at near resistance levels, while take a small bite at near support levels.

Based on the relative strength, I continue to believe that high-tech sector should be slightly over-weighed. However, since I’m already in high-tech industry, I do not hold anything in this sector besides my company shares & options.

Intermediate to longer term, precious metal-related investment should continue to go up.

Without any external events, this summer stock markets may be just range-bound to slightly trending up. Until all the banks stop to extend & pretend on their loan terms, kicking out the home squatters (not paying any mortgages for an average of 449 days), there will not be big write-offs from the balance sheets, nor a dramatic fall in financial sector. Reckoning days postponed.

Today Google Voice has been made publicly available to anyone. I have just been using Google Voice for about one month with my landline, thanks to my IT friend’s invitation into the program. It has been terrific.

Here are some of the highlights in my trials:
1. It will ring ALL of your (mobile) phone numbers if you list them out. This means that you could use the Google Phone number as the main permanent contact phone number for family & friends, and you could change your mobile plans/phone numbers in whatever ways you want, and it won’t change even after you move out of the area. And Google Voice will further block any spam callings & mobile texting messages automatically.

2. It will TRANSCRIBE any voicemail messages into text. That accuracy of the transcription is simply amazing. I tested it a little bit, and it’s 100% accurate so far. Creative usage of this would be that you could use it yourself for any typing needs for blogging, writings, etc.

3. Obviously not many people write these days, but because the messages are transcribed, it becomes a searchable database, which Google excels in doing. If you receive many voicemails for your business, this will be an excellent way of handling your high volume of voicemail messages (although I’m not sure if business are allowed for using Google Voice).

4. The best of all you get everything for free, AND a free US-registered phone number. I know many of those “free-for-ever” IP phone services (like Ooma), which still require you to pay $5 to $10 every year for a valid US phone number registration (to government I believe). Guess what! Insanely profitable Google pays that for you, and you get to pick your own phone number!

5. Free conference calling capability which you don’t need to pay extra.

6. Google intended the Google Voice for mobile phones (and by the way, it doesn’t work with prepaid T-mobile phones). However, you can use it for landline too. I have been using my Google Voice number to dial around from my landline phone for FREE US domestic calls, and very competitive international calls. Calling quality is most of the time BETTER than any IP phones that you can get (Yeah, I tried and quited on Ooma already). Here is the detailed dialing instructions which you need to follow exactly once you get your Google Voice phone number:

• You MUST set up your voice mail password from your Google Voice account http://www.google.com/voice/ (after you log into your gmail obviously).
• Dial your Google Voice number (from your landline) which hopefully is a free local call if you have chosen your number wisely.
• Don’t let it ring any of your phones, and then you can press * (star) to enter into your voice mail. Punch in your voice mail password.
• Voila! You can press 2 to dial out, possibly after listening to or skipping all of your recorded messages.

Get your free & favorite phone number before they get taken now at www.google.com/voice!

The 10 suicides at Foxconn have happened in this year, and are no longer news. However, they are so important in the big economic picture that special attentions are deserved.

Just some background on this Taiwan-based company itself. This company is arguably the biggest and most efficient manufacturer of all sorts of goods in the world. After these suicides, the company raised the salary of ALL workers at the plan by some 30%, and have some 60% additional bonus reserved for good output. Various question can be asked, but I’m mainly concerned about the big picture causes and effects from such action at the edge of tidal wave.

Through US-pegged renminbi, US monetary inflation is manifesting in Chinese economy. For all the deflationists out there, the proof of inflation is not domestic, but in China & India, and eventually will find its way back to US soil. The eventual re-evaluation of renminbi is inevitable to re-balance the living standards on the two sides of the pacific ocean.

I don’t have time to elaborate more, but point you to two excellent articles on this topic:
1. Chinese Workers Force the Issue by Peter Schiff
2. The Asian Inflation Bug by Martin Hutchinson

Stock rally is stalling a little bit. This summer until September may be quite nasty. I suggest lightening up for possible reloading later, which still needs to be qualified by technical observations.

Gold is approaching the high ceiling again, due to stabilization of euro. It’s still the strongest currency, stronger than both euro & US dollar. If there is a buying opportunity this summer, grab it.

And sorry I haven’t paid any attention to oil & energy markets for quite awhile, since I’ve cleaned out my entire stake several months back. “Thanks” to BP, the entire sector has been sold down. And I’m not interested yet.

By the way, US debt is now 13 trillions now, not counting any of the medicare/social security obligations. Mark my words. Deficit will be at 20 trillions in less than 10 years, and US dollar will break down, creating the next big wave of inflation (at least in the US territories).

The longer stock markets don’t rally when they should, the more investors will throw in the towel. I believe there is a serious danger of breaking 1040 on the S&P 500, after which the markets will collapse at an even greater speed. I have already increased my existing cash holding by almost 50% in the last week, not waiting for the markets to give a final verdict. The counter rally is pathetically weak, and going further out into summer, the European debt complication will only get more serious.

As I have been suspecting that MACD on S&P 500 may do a head fake. So far however this head fake signal only lasted 1 day. It’s exceedingly weak. The market has very little underlying support now. There are more sells than buys, and sellers are getting more panicky. Though short-term wise it’s very hard to tell whether it will be up or down. I would still advise to stay away temporarily for awhile.

Yes, markets are quite oversold, but they can stay oversold much longer than you can bear.

I just received this email from Bing cashback program:

Dear valued cashback customer:

We are writing to notify you that the Bing cashback program will be discontinued, and the last day to earn cash back on your Bing Shopping purchases will be July 30, 2010.

Until July 30, 2010 9:00 pm PST, it’s business as usual so continue to take advantage of great offers from your favorite merchants. You can redeem all of your earned cashback savings consistent with the cashback terms and conditions and access the Bing cashback customer support system through July 30, 2011. We encourage you to redeem your cashback savings and to further support redemption, we are waiving the $5 minimum payout effective July 31, 2010….

It’s a pity to see it goes. I guess good things just don’t last forever. I have definitely enjoyed the total savings of $29 cashback on already discounted online goodies that I was able to find.

Make sure you redeem your remaining cashback in your own account before the end of July.