Comments on: Stock Market Crash Signal: Hindenberg Omen on April 7, 2006 http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/05/hindenberg-omen/ A site to share my tips, tools, and humble thoughts on the journey to wealth Tue, 16 Mar 2010 07:08:55 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: My 1st Million At 33 http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/05/hindenberg-omen/comment-page-1/#comment-344 My 1st Million At 33 Tue, 13 Jun 2006 09:39:32 +0000 http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/05/hindenberg-omen/#comment-344 <strong>Rethinking on the Gold Correction...</strong> Overnight in Asian market, gold has broke thru $600 down to $590.  It looks like $570-$580 is a definite possibility, and $550 is looking more real these days.  The million dollar question is of course whether this is the time to buy.  My gut feelin... Rethinking on the Gold Correction…

Overnight in Asian market, gold has broke thru $600 down to $590.  It looks like $570-$580 is a definite possibility, and $550 is looking more real these days.  The million dollar question is of course whether this is the time to buy.  My gut feelin…

]]> By: frugal http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/05/hindenberg-omen/comment-page-1/#comment-133 frugal Thu, 11 May 2006 19:20:42 +0000 http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/05/hindenberg-omen/#comment-133 I am having some internet problem, and I have posted two similar replies to your question. Personally, I'm not doing much buying of precious metals, stocks or ETFs. But this is a definitely a runaway bull. Who knows? Maybe parabolic rise will keep continuing. I only noticed that every short term dips are becoming shorter in duration (at most 1 day), and shallower in depth. I believe that in the event of precious metal correction, it will be shallower than I think it will be. I am having some internet problem, and I have posted two similar replies to your question. Personally, I’m not doing much buying of precious metals, stocks or ETFs. But this is a definitely a runaway bull. Who knows? Maybe parabolic rise will keep continuing. I only noticed that every short term dips are becoming shorter in duration (at most 1 day), and shallower in depth. I believe that in the event of precious metal correction, it will be shallower than I think it will be.

]]> By: Novice http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/05/hindenberg-omen/comment-page-1/#comment-132 Novice Thu, 11 May 2006 19:14:38 +0000 http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/05/hindenberg-omen/#comment-132 Thank you for your fast response. I'm become very interested in silver in the last few weeks, and am thinking about putting my entire Roth IRA from the 500 index to the silver ETF. I'm just scouring the internet looking for reasons why I would be an idiot to do that. However, all I read indicates silver is going to go way up despite any short term corrections. I would've already made my move, except I'm waiting for Scottrade to receive the funds from the former custodian, which could take another week and a half. Meanwhile, silver zoomed up to $15 while I helplessly watch. Thank you for your fast response. I’m become very interested in silver in the last few weeks, and am thinking about putting my entire Roth IRA from the 500 index to the silver ETF. I’m just scouring the internet looking for reasons why I would be an idiot to do that. However, all I read indicates silver is going to go way up despite any short term corrections. I would’ve already made my move, except I’m waiting for Scottrade to receive the funds from the former custodian, which could take another week and a half. Meanwhile, silver zoomed up to $15 while I helplessly watch.

]]> By: frugal http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/05/hindenberg-omen/comment-page-1/#comment-127 frugal Thu, 11 May 2006 17:38:14 +0000 http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/05/hindenberg-omen/#comment-127 By intermediate top, I mean a local maximum, or a peak in the chart. I firmly believe that this top is not the final top. It's very hard to call a top in such a parabolic topping process as in precious metals now. Often, the majority of gain will occur late in the cycle in a short timeframe. However, once the intermediate top is in, it is possible for it to decline minimum of 15%, and possibly even up to 50% in precious metal stocks (although I don't expect it to be). Please don't be confused about the market of precious metals and the general market because they act VERY differently. You can read more about my thinking at <a href="http://www.1stmillionat33.com/2006/05/my-take-on-the-market-outlook" rel="nofollow">My Take on the Market Outlook</a>. By intermediate top, I mean a local maximum, or a peak in the chart. I firmly believe that this top is not the final top. It’s very hard to call a top in such a parabolic topping process as in precious metals now. Often, the majority of gain will occur late in the cycle in a short timeframe. However, once the intermediate top is in, it is possible for it to decline minimum of 15%, and possibly even up to 50% in precious metal stocks (although I don’t expect it to be).
Please don’t be confused about the market of precious metals and the general market because they act VERY differently.
You can read more about my thinking at My Take on the Market Outlook.

]]> By: frugal http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/05/hindenberg-omen/comment-page-1/#comment-125 frugal Thu, 11 May 2006 17:10:28 +0000 http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/05/hindenberg-omen/#comment-125 I don't know exactly where the intermediate top will be. Gold is getting very close to my target at $750 as described in my previous post <a href="http://www.1stmillionat33.com/2006/05/my-take-on-the-market-outlook" rel="nofollow">My Take on the Market Outlook</a>. But I do know once precious metals reach its intermediate top, it will DEFINITELY decline by probably 20% and possibly up to 50% in precious metal stocks. By intermediate top, I mean that a peak, or a local maximum point is reached. This peak will be exceeded again in the coming years I believe. It's not the final top. Unfortunately, it is extremely difficult to call any top. And one of the problem with such topping process is that a lot of gains will occur very late in the topping cycle as we have been seeing in the spot gold price. There are other topping processes, but a parabolic topping process is harder to deal with. At this level, I personally will only recommend putting very small percentage of your total allocated capital into precious metal market. I would say maybe 5% of your total allocated capital. And your total allocated capital for this market may be 5% to some outrageously high of 40% of your total networth. I don’t know exactly where the intermediate top will be. Gold is getting very close to my target at $750 as described in my previous post My Take on the Market Outlook. But I do know once precious metals reach its intermediate top, it will DEFINITELY decline by probably 20% and possibly up to 50% in precious metal stocks. By intermediate top, I mean that a peak, or a local maximum point is reached. This peak will be exceeded again in the coming years I believe. It’s not the final top. Unfortunately, it is extremely difficult to call any top. And one of the problem with such topping process is that a lot of gains will occur very late in the topping cycle as we have been seeing in the spot gold price. There are other topping processes, but a parabolic topping process is harder to deal with. At this level, I personally will only recommend putting very small percentage of your total allocated capital into precious metal market. I would say maybe 5% of your total allocated capital. And your total allocated capital for this market may be 5% to some outrageously high of 40% of your total networth.

]]> By: Novice http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/05/hindenberg-omen/comment-page-1/#comment-116 Novice Thu, 11 May 2006 08:30:40 +0000 http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/05/hindenberg-omen/#comment-116 I'm a novice to investing and financial markets. I'm interested in learning more about what you mean and why you say that precious metals are at an intermediate top and expect a 20% decline from today's levels. Thank you. I’m a novice to investing and financial markets. I’m interested in learning more about what you mean and why you say that precious metals are at an intermediate top and expect a 20% decline from today’s levels. Thank you.

]]> By: frugal http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/05/hindenberg-omen/comment-page-1/#comment-113 frugal Thu, 11 May 2006 06:33:25 +0000 http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/05/hindenberg-omen/#comment-113 I believe Dow will make new high too, but simply because it is the easiest to be manipulated by Fed (just my guess). At least, so far, it appears that way. Dow is leading most of the time, and the so called Dow theory has been indicating positive signals so far. I'm sure if there are manipulators, they would never let Dow Theory gives out sell signal. I believe Dow will make new high too, but simply because it is the easiest to be manipulated by Fed (just my guess). At least, so far, it appears that way. Dow is leading most of the time, and the so called Dow theory has been indicating positive signals so far. I’m sure if there are manipulators, they would never let Dow Theory gives out sell signal.

]]> By: Personal Finance Blogger http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/05/hindenberg-omen/comment-page-1/#comment-109 Personal Finance Blogger Thu, 11 May 2006 04:52:53 +0000 http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/05/hindenberg-omen/#comment-109 I've been expecting a correction for a while now and have moved to 50% cash in our retirement accounts. My gut feeling is that the Dow will make a new high soon, we'll get some confidence in the market and then see a slide through the summer and into October or so when we'll pick up again. Should be some good buying ops... I’ve been expecting a correction for a while now and have moved to 50% cash in our retirement accounts. My gut feeling is that the Dow will make a new high soon, we’ll get some confidence in the market and then see a slide through the summer and into October or so when we’ll pick up again. Should be some good buying ops…

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