Market Update:Contrarian to the Contrarians
Posted by Frugal on May 30th, 2006
So the market falls again today. The key gauge that I look at is still $US dollar & US bonds, both of which fell today. This is simply not a good sign, because it indicates that foreigners overall are bailing out of US market, and in a big way. Initially because Bernanke is the “trusted helicopter pilot”, I thought that he will definitely inflate at the critical junctures. Could it be he is simply too arrogant to intervene this market?
Although I’m glad to see precious metal markets catching bids, I have held onto my company holdings in the expectation of general inflation and gushes of liquidity to push the general market higher. I believe that Jim Puplava and McClellan are still in the camp of market pushing higher. But the market is telling otherwise. The character of this market has changed to a bearish tone. I wonder whether I have become a contrarian to the contrarians as described by James West.
Has the precious metal market bottomed? I hope not. I have not deployed my almost 30% cash pile at all. I am still expecting spot gold to fall to $620 +/10 range. As time goes on however, it is becoming more advantageous to precious metal market because the moving average is moving up gradually. I believe that there will be another dip after this temporary bounce-up.
Has the curse of Hindenberg Omen ran its course? I don’t know. But with Ike Iossif calling a potential drop of S&P 500 to 900ish, there is probably a substantial battle ahead in this market.
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