Review on My Past Market Commentaries
Posted by Frugal on June 29th, 2006
Thumbs up:
- Gold not to exceed $750. $US down wave will be contained temporarily.
- Yield curve not flattening (yet) from Jun 8th post.
- Gold stocks correction is probably over (made this call after 2 days of the new low). Still yet to be seen whether gold stocks will make new low after Fed meets.
- Incorrect forecast on precious metal market not correcting as much.
- Didn’t take Hindenburg Omen seriously, and totally over-estimate the new Fed chief Bernanke and PPT (Plunge Protection Team).
Overall, despite that I realized Market Correction Is Here on May 12th, roughly 3 days after market made its top, my inaction hurt my portfolio performance a lot. The biggest reason for inaction is obviously my complacency and that I had no contingency plan for market surprises. My high cash level contributed partially to the reasons of not selling to build more cash.
The lessons learned: I must devise plan A, B, & C for different unfolding scenarios as not to be caught in surprise of not knowing what to do. A calm in mind is the best for trading success. Knowing exactly when to fold and when to hold, and whether to trade or whether to invest is the key.
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June 29th, 2006 at 8:13 am
Next time I see a confirmed Hindenburg Omen, I’m going to sell big time. Less than 3 hours to the Fed announcement, and the markets seem to be going up. I have a plan for a dip but no plan for gold breaking $600.
June 29th, 2006 at 9:32 am
I’m guessing that market will trend up slowly after the meeting. If it goes up big time, then the chance of dip is higher. I haven’t done anything in my portfolio. My guess is that PM market will grind higher until the point when all those people who were not onboard starts to jump in big time, and then it will dip right after that (at a higher level from today).
If you want to take a bet, you can buy some right now. But I hate to gamble. There is a difference between gambling and investing. Investing is when you see values in the market you jump in. Gambling is simply betting on some 50/50 events.
In any case, I’m in the bullish camp, and I would rather see PM keeps going higher, and leave my 50% cash in dust.