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  • Fed trying to bluff

    Posted by Frugal on August 23rd, 2006

    The recent hawky speeches by two Federal Reserve governors were intended to rein in US dollar fall against Euro I believe. $US was falling to almost 1.30, before the two speeches and German business confidence survey. After that, Euro is at 1.2786. Hey, talk is empty and free. Never hurts to speak “seriously”, and do otherwise. I still believe that Fed will NOT raise interest rate in next meeting on September 20. And possibly that will be the trigger for the next reactionary rally.

    So possibly another month for the stock market to trade sideway or maybe swan-dive. S&P 500 however is still holding above 1280/1290 as of this moment. If in another two days, the market doesn’t turn up, then my previous small move is most likely wrong.

    Obviously for the Feds to come out and talk down inflationary expectation by “possible” interest rate hike, certainly it was because the market had a little room to fall.

    To be a Fed governor, or especially a Fed chairman, you have to be a good poker player. Greenspan was certainly one of the best poker players that bluffs the bond market all the time.


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