I really hate gold mergers: GG buys GLG
Posted by Frugal on August 31st, 2006
Last time NG went up by 33% was good. But not this time. GLG just went up by 20% because GG is buying it. Yes, I own GLG, and got a big boost. But I own GG too, but at a much bigger amount. So counting both gain & losses, I’m down about $1000 because of this transaction. I always thought that GLG had less reserve, and GG’s reserve is in very good shape. It just got lots of reserve from ABX-PDG deal, right? My reasoning has always been that GLG most likely needs to acquire some smaller player down the road. Something is wrong! Either my data is not correct, or my memory is not serving me correctly.
It’s really hard to play in this gold equity market. The big companies will continue to acquire the smaller ones. But the smaller players may or may not ride the tide together with the big trend. Plus that smaller companies can be really risky. When something goes wrong with small companies, it can be really ugly. HUI looks like is almost at the edge of breaking out the ascending triangle. I am very afraid of placing more bets for fear of a negative resolution. It’s also possible that it fakes down in a big way, and then reverses up.
Commodity index CRB has broken 200 days MA. Definitely not a good sign, if it doesn’t turn up soon. Yet, there seems to be a little more downside to go in oil and gold spot prices. What worries me is that maybe gold and stock markets will not be synchronous this time. The general stock market is looking better each day. But the driving force has been a lower oil price. Looks more like CRB and stock market is going to have a big fight instead of being jolly and rising together.
Waiting….holding tight….what would be the story in about 1 month (or less)?
It will most likely make or break my portfolio.
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