My Portfolio: One day late to the market
Posted by Frugal on August 22nd, 2006
If you check the history of my portfolio, you will notice a BIG jump (well, it’s bigger than it appears because of the scaled down factor) in both my cash+leverage and my everything_else (which is my portfolio mostly). Well, I did not really gain a lot from the markets. What really happened was that finally my close relative wired in the money for me to invest. I’m including those for my performance record, while I don’t include those as part of my networth (yeah, my networth went down on the same day Aug 21, 2006).
And it’s simply so frustrating. On Monday, because of Iran’s nuclear situation, gold and gold stocks went straight UP. Gold is up almost $20 or more, and most PM stocks are up by 3% to 8%. I have been waiting for my last scoop of PM, and it appears that this last scoop is quite fleeting.
The wired cash came in just 1 day late!! I’m a little afraid of PM market taking off as ML at Invest In the Middle Way described, before I’m fully allocated.
These days, I’m quite stressed when I looked at market. So much indecision and uncertainty. Even though I made my small initial move into the general market, most blogs or most sites don’t agree with me. The prospect of full deflation is so real that it really concerns me. Martin Pring’s latest August newsletter stressed me even further for both my positions in general market and commodity. I’m quite tense indeed. Despite that market is up today, and I’m just about breakeven or a little positive for my move last week, I keep contemplating whether I should back out, or even go into reverse gear. This is a really stressful time to be investing in the stock market.
If I make further moves into the market, I will be postponing those portions allocated to the general market much later towards beginning of the October instead. And for precious metal market, I really hope that there will be a last dip before a spectacular rise into the year-end (just my wish & my forecast). I’m really not ready yet.
I sit on quite a lot of cash, NERVOUS to the Nth degree. And I sit on even more stocks, STRESSFUL to the Xth degree. There is no clear messages from the market yet. And the uncertainty of a coming big change in the market is torturing me.
At a certain point, you would be really glad that someone else is managing the money for you, even though they may not be doing a great job. At least, they take away this stress partially from you.
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August 22nd, 2006 at 12:08 pm
I hear ya Frugal. I moved my retirement money into more aggressive funds, but I don’t watch the market very much, it gives me stomach aches…I’d say that I still feel comfortable being in the market in general though…I’ve sort of become comfortable, how scary is that, with being unsure. hah. Eventually, I may shift back to conservative mode, but I’ll wait it out a bit…
August 22nd, 2006 at 6:25 pm
HI, Frugal,
Thanks for the plug. How’s the summer doldrums treating you?
The lack of response to the Iranian response today was puzzling. I guess the ball is now in US’s court regarding that situation. I don’t understand why Iran would chose such a storied date only to weasel out like that. Maybe it’s a good thing that anoter Mideast crisis is not the trigger of a move in the PMs. I rather see the market giving weight to more lasting and sustainable reasons for PMs to go higher. I’m committed so now is a time to wait.
Best luck to you (and your relative),
ML
August 22nd, 2006 at 8:08 pm
With cash doing so good (5% and better) I don’t see any reason to make big decisions until at least September (this with my non-retirement accounts).
The good news with cash getting so much is we have the TIME to really make a good decision.
Also, with Iran, I think we are all overreacting. Ahmadinejad is a very savvy leader, I don’t think he’s as loony tunes as the west is making him out to be. I think Iran is getting nukes as a defensive move and to get taken more seriously on the world stage, but I don’t think it’s for an offensive move. They love their country very very much and know they would be annihilated if they launched anything towards the west.
If you know any persians it’s interesting to ask them their opinion. Most persians living in the west have a more nuanced view of this situation and don’t see it quite as alarming as the West does.
August 22nd, 2006 at 10:13 pm
ML,
My PM is doing alright. I recovered some since May height because I did add more positions in June as you’re aware. Lots of my energy stocks are still down, especially the alternative energies. Majority of the alternative energies are down by some 33%.
To ML & finance girl,
My opinion on Iran is that Iran is trying to become a regional power in the Middle East. Iran will not be that stupid I believe to launch nuclear missle, or even regular missles. I see the real problem lies in the White House & Israel. US/Israel will be the real aggressor, even when the media says (or will say) otherwise. Israel launched air raid on Lebanon after cease-fire was in. That country is like the biggest bully in the middle east, requiring no explanations to anyone.
I can’t find the original article by a Canadian Prof. Chossudovsky, but here is another article discussing his view, related to BTC pipeline completion in the Middle East, just right before Israel made a big fuss about the kidnapped soldiers. Some said that Israel soldiers deliberately stepped into Lebanon’s territory for this to happen. I don’t know what was the real truth, but the attack by Israel by any measures seems to be pre-mediated and well-organized, paralyzing the entire Lebanon in just days. Such attack must be planned in my opinion. It is totally disgusting for anyone to disregard human life for power and money.
Enough about Israel. They make me sick. I’m only against the actions taken by that country, but not the Jewish race. There are quite many good Jewish people.
August 23rd, 2006 at 11:43 am
I found the original article on BTC pipeline & the war on Lebanon.