Comments on: Interesting Articles for the Week 09/25 http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/09/interesting-articles-for-the-week-0925/ A site to share my tips, tools, and humble thoughts on the journey to wealth Sun, 02 Oct 2011 19:26:45 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=abc By: Frugal http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/09/interesting-articles-for-the-week-0925/comment-page-1/#comment-1423 Frugal Tue, 26 Sep 2006 19:11:48 +0000 http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/09/interesting-articles-for-the-week-0925/#comment-1423 Russell, thanks for your pointer on cramerwatch.org. Looks like Cramer is really making a big name for himself. Russell, thanks for your pointer on cramerwatch.org. Looks like Cramer is really making a big name for himself.

]]> By: Frugal http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/09/interesting-articles-for-the-week-0925/comment-page-1/#comment-1422 Frugal Tue, 26 Sep 2006 19:10:33 +0000 http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/09/interesting-articles-for-the-week-0925/#comment-1422 ML, I'm not dismissing any of the housing slowdown that could cause stock market to drop. I'm so acutely aware of that. In fact, it is one of my major reasons for investing in precious metals. I just don't want to sleep and wake up to find out that FNM is going bankrupt, and US government will bail it out by issuing trillions of more debts, which would cause both the US bond and currency market to crash. I only meant to say that you cannot really predict stock market with such high correlation/accuracy. I think it will probably FALL, but just fall with a different curve. ML,
I’m not dismissing any of the housing slowdown that could cause stock market to drop. I’m so acutely aware of that. In fact, it is one of my major reasons for investing in precious metals. I just don’t want to sleep and wake up to find out that FNM is going bankrupt, and US government will bail it out by issuing trillions of more debts, which would cause both the US bond and currency market to crash.
I only meant to say that you cannot really predict stock market with such high correlation/accuracy. I think it will probably FALL, but just fall with a different curve.

]]> By: Russell Bailyn http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/09/interesting-articles-for-the-week-0925/comment-page-1/#comment-1421 Russell Bailyn Tue, 26 Sep 2006 19:05:46 +0000 http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/09/interesting-articles-for-the-week-0925/#comment-1421 Interesting weblink here which relates to this story. Cramerwatch.org is a site which compares his stock picks to those of "Leonard the random Monkey." It's a fun little spin on the random walk hypothesis. Plus, it doesn't make Jim look all that talented. Interesting weblink here which relates to this story. Cramerwatch.org is a site which compares his stock picks to those of “Leonard the random Monkey.” It’s a fun little spin on the random walk hypothesis. Plus, it doesn’t make Jim look all that talented.

]]> By: ML http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/09/interesting-articles-for-the-week-0925/comment-page-1/#comment-1420 ML Tue, 26 Sep 2006 15:26:13 +0000 http://www.1stMillionAt33.com/2006/09/interesting-articles-for-the-week-0925/#comment-1420 Frugal, See this link for the complete set of data on housing vs. stocks: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=458 It is true that correlation is not the same as causation, but correlation shouldn't be dismissed out of hand either. The stated mechanism is that the slowing housing market causes unemployment in the RE related sector and reduce consumer spending through MEW and wealth effect which brings an economic slowdown. Of course, the bulls would have you believe in a soft landing a la 1994 is in the cards without any regard to the macro differences between now and then. ContraryInvestor ran an interesting comparison a while back, I'll try to dig it up. The stock market is partying like we're back in 1999 but the commodities and bonds are saying otherwise. We'll see who's right soon enough. ML Frugal,

See this link for the complete set of data on housing vs. stocks:
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=458

It is true that correlation is not the same as causation, but correlation shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand either. The stated mechanism is that the slowing housing market causes unemployment in the RE related sector and reduce consumer spending through MEW and wealth effect which brings an economic slowdown. Of course, the bulls would have you believe in a soft landing a la 1994 is in the cards without any regard to the macro differences between now and then. ContraryInvestor ran an interesting comparison a while back, I’ll try to dig it up.

The stock market is partying like we’re back in 1999 but the commodities and bonds are saying otherwise. We’ll see who’s right soon enough.

ML

]]>