My 1st Million At 33 – yes, you can do it too

This post is in response to a recent reader’s question in the comment section. It’s an analysis on a hypothetical war. No one can possibly guess the timing of such war (if it would happen) with a very high certainty (unless you are Mr. Bush, or close to his circle). But if I’m Mr. Bush or the war planner, I will consider the following:

1. The Hurricane Season: A war in the Middle East will cause oil market to spike. To have a war in the Middle East together with a devastating hurricane is an economic suicide. The crude oil price may spike to above $100 easily due to the combination of the two factors. Therefore, I will not consider any war in the hurricane season which starts officially on June 1st, and finishes in the end November. In fact, I will make sure that the war or the most intensive part of the war finishes before the start of the hurricane season.
2. Christmas shopping seasons: About 70% of the GDP in the USA is due to consumer spending. And 20% or more of the retail sales are done in this period, starting the Black Friday right after Thanksgiving. A terrorist would choose to attack during this season, while a US war planner would never choose to start a war near the start of the holiday shopping seasons. Definitely after Christmas and New Year. US economy is very dependent on consumers to carry the load.
3. The weather factor: I am not so sure how the weather is in Iran, but at Iraq, it was pretty tough to fight a war in hot summer for US soldiers on the ground, wearing gas mask, and/or carrying heavy equipment. This is probably one of the reasons that war with Iraq started in March. Even though I am fairly certain that US will not deploy ground force into Iran, I suppose that staying away from the start of hurricane season and hot weather in the summer (April to June) is simply a good idea.

Now if you assume that the most intensive part of the war will last for one month or in the worst case two months, and give sufficient time for the financial markets to stablize, you will probably want to move the start of the war earlier to account the the duration of its effects. Given all the above factors, I would say that the start of the war should be from mid-January to May 1st, the latest.

Furthermore, we have an election this year in November. It would look very bad to the party in power if they start a war to right after the election is over. Since you will need a couple of months to engineer and direct the media coverage to focus on the Iran issues (which cannot start after Christmas shopping is all done), you are probably looking at end of February the earliest. You definitely want the public opinions to be on your side with any wars, so that you don’t incur further political cost to the party in power.

The final strategic timeframe therefore would be about from the end of February to end of April, only two months. In fact, I’m sure the war with Iraq went through similar reasoning. The timing of a war with Iran should have similar timing as Iraq. Within this timeframe, as a war planner, I am fairly certain that it should be always earlier the better. There are many uncertainties in a war, and with an earlier start, you give yourself a better margin away from the hurrican season, and to deal with anything that could happen.

Since Mr. Bush will finish his second term in 2008, will you choose to start something that you may not be able to finish cleaning up in 2008? Or will you rather choose to clean up by your own ways while you are still in power from 2007 to 2008?

IF there is a war with Iran, end of February to March in 2007 should have the highest probability as the starting date. We will NOT see any signs right now. In January 2007, if we start to see media coverage on stirring Iran issues on nuclear arms, then we should be really careful on watch for such potential unfolding event. With stock markets going higher and higher this time around, next February would be the “ideal” time technically speaking for a big fall if a war occurs.

I hate to see any wars, and I hope that a war does not happen. In fact, if we go through the end of May without a war happening in 2007, I think a war with Iran will probably no chance of happening until 2010 or later (if conflicts persist and worsen). Of course, that is also assuming that Mr. Bush is not crazy or stubborn enough to try again in 2008. Let us hope that peace prevails.

P.S. I’ve turned off the comment section. I probably look very stupid, talking about Iran wars now. In any case, I will prefer to be looking stupid, rather than any occurrence of wars. Me stupid is fine. Wars are not fine, not humane, and simply the most TERRIBLE action humans can engage in. If you have any comments, you can email them to me. I will selectively re-post your comments later.