No Title/Subject
Posted by Frugal on December 21st, 2006
Test. Nothing here. Don’t read. Test. Nothing here. Don’t read.
Test. Nothing here. Don’t read. Test. Nothing here. Don’t read.
Test. Nothing here. Don’t read. Test. Nothing here. Don’t read.
Test. Nothing here. Don’t read. Test. Nothing here. Don’t read.
Test. Nothing here. Don’t read. Test. Nothing here. Don’t read.
This is a holiday season, and a perfect time for me to divulge an investing secret that I don’t like to share with too many people. Only the ardent followers of my site will get to read it.
Do you know why I bought gold back in 2002 for $305? Was I really that smart, and forsaw the future gold price? NO. Absolutely not. I didn’t know that much about gold, but I remembered and followed the advice of the smartest financial wizard that I ever know of. It’s a lot more important to follow the smartest people than being smart.
Maybe some of you know the name of this guy. I may be writing more about him, but I won’t be spelling his name correctly so that Google Search won’t find my post. There is too many ugly things going behind the scenes that I don’t want to get myself into trouble either.
He is the ONLY person that I know of who has successfully predicted stock market crashes at least twice (and maybe more), 1987 US and 1990s Japan. His prediction came months earlier, and the date was probably down to within a couple of weeks if not days.
So what did this guy say in 1999? Gold’s bottom at about $250, and any price below will be the DEAL of the CENTURY. If I recalled correctly, he also correctly stated in 1999 that gold has PREMATURELY made a false bottom in 1999. It turned out to be a double bottom made in 1999/2001.
I waited for “the deal of century” to appear but it never did, and I couldn’t affirm whether gold had successfully bottomed because his numbers were so right on target. After it rose above to $300, I realized that the tide has already turned, and I bought in. I kept investing in gold, without realizing the alternative unfolding of his prophetic words: tangible assets will keep going up towards 2007. And that was real estate. In fact, Fed successfully diverted the monetary tide much more into real estate than other tangible commodities. Obviously, I was looking for the usual real estate slowdown after a stock market crash. But of course, history only rhymes, but never repeats.
When I read his articles before he went into jail in 2000, one of the article he talked about economic forecasting which is really fascinating. He compared quantum mechanics physics with classical mechanics physics, and how economics seemed to be so unpredictable. But through his studies, he has found that economics is more like classical mechanics. Once a motion is set forth, it is hard to turn it around. Basically, long term economics forecasting IS predictable and forces of the economics were often seeded YEARS earlier.
He made such an impression on me that I wish I remembered every word he said. Unfortunately, this guy was jailed in early 2000, and has been jailed because of contempt of the court (he cannot surrender the “cheated” money to court because all of his assets are confiscated and all of his managed accounts have been conmingled and most likely stolen by a guilty bank). He was jailed for almost 7 years now, and has NOT been given a trial at all. His trial if there is ever one got postponed and postponed and postponed, and in the meantime during these 7 years he simply kept waiting for a fair trial. And this is happening in USA, the land of “free” and “brave”? Just this year, finally he, an old man, admitted guilty by force and still without a trial.
I wish I’m lying, but I’m not. This reads almost like another fabled story. Unfortunately it is true, and so true for this poor and great economist. Both US and Chinese government had tried to obtain his economic forecasting model without success. So he was jailed for “good” probably in the opinion of USA. His predictions on financial markets were too accurate and too scary to the power of authorities. This is like what’s happening in “Enemy of the State” movie.
In his economic models, he also forecasted that there will be an international debt market crisis (and you know which currency, right?) In his economic models, there is a period of pi or 3.14159 *1000 = 3141 days. He said it’s a magical nature number. I fully agree, but having a minor in physics from college, I cannot concur that 1000 is a magic number. I don’t buy his theory of pi * 1000 at all, because I cannot explain how 1000 is a natural number in nature. However, for whatever reasons, 3141 days seems to be the magical period for economics through his studies.
He models within every 3141 days for 3 peaks, with the centered peak being the highest. However, only by collecting ALL international money flow and data from financial markets, and then run through his artificial intelligent computer model will you get the type of asset that will peak or bottom.
Do you know when is the next MAJOR peaking date? It’s Feb 25, 2007. And that has been the major reason that I have stayed put for my precious metal positions in the face of 2006 April’s Hindenberg’s Omen. And the reason is that I believed that the peak in 2007 may be even higher. But of course, I was aware that I didn’t know which asset class/index will be peaking in 2007. After the correction in precious metals in June/July, it started to become clear to me that actually the more likely candidate for peaking is the general stock market. I started to call to PUT money into the general stock market repeatedly through the fall season (well, if you were reading my advice back then). And so many analysts have called a stock market correction since its rise. But I know/believe that the MAJOR stock market correction will not come most likely until late Feb of 2007.
YES, it will be a TOP, and it is still not top YET.
I didn’t know whether it will be a peak date for real estate, or precious metal, or stock market. But I knew that the peak of real estate is either 2007, or summer of 2006 as predicted by UCLA professor Sornette. Certainly, real estate is out of picture. And certainly precious metals are too late to rise up to a NEW record high in my opinion. So, it has to be the STOCK market. And you bet that I will sell for sure. And sorry, I may or may not remind you. An investing secret that is too well-known will simply not work for sure. In fact, I know that there are (at least 2) investing professionals out there well aware of this mystical PI date.
Forget about 4-year election cycle, or 8-year cycles. I believe this 8.6 year cycle is more accurate than anything else. 1987 stock market crash fell on the EXACT PI date if I recall correctly.
If you want, you can google this guy. His full name is gnortsmra nitram spelled backwards. Again, don’t put his name in my comment section. I will delete them, since google also pick up words in the comments. It’s a little hard to google things out on him. You may need to add other relevant words, or else you won’t get the right things come up. After 7 long years, it’s becoming exceedingly difficult to find his written articles from the past.
And currently since precious metals will not peak in 2007, I believe that they will have more bull runs after that.
By the way, it may not be a game over for stocks. I tentatively believe that 2009, the next significant date in his model, will be more important peak date in terms of absolute price (but maybe not in relative price to gold).
I would pay more than $1000 for his research if it’s available. But now I’m kind of on my own, reading thousands of articles every year (about 15+ article a day), while watching various markets and observing closely where the money is flowing. After several years of investing in gold, I have become convinced many of the arguments made by gold bugs and peak oil people. I don’t know whether there will be an international debt market crisis as once predicted by this guy, but I can definitely conjure up ways and reasons of how it could happen, especially through peak oil theory.
People like to be optimistic about future, and take a more linear view on things rather than understanding cycles. But between peak oil and global warming, I would really much prefer peak oil. Truly, peak oil will save the Earth, despite the potential economic havoc that it could cause. More on this later, until next time….
More related posts:
Digg it Del.icio.us Reddit Furl BlinkList Newsvine Yahoo MyWeb
December 21st, 2006 at 8:23 am
Very interesting read… I’ll have to go and look this guy up and see what else I can find about him. There was a similar person, who wasn’t in jail that was on CNBC a few months back. It was showing his predictions for multiple markets over the past 10 years or so and his models were almost identical. He did predict a robut 2007 for the stock market btw.
Thanks for the interesting article, I enjoyed it immensely.
December 21st, 2006 at 9:01 am
I’ve enjoyed reading your site in the past. That said, this is a very conspiracy theory-like post. In my mind, it strips you of much of your credibility. Doing a google search (Didier Sornette jail) returns absolutely nothing about him being incarcerated. You provided no evidence throughout your post to back up your claims. I know you’re capable of better writing and/or reporting.
December 21st, 2006 at 9:09 am
Matt,
You didn’t read my post correctly. If you don’t know who Sornette is, then you didn’t even read my real estate posts. And it’s always up to you how you want to take the info from this site. The only thing that I can guarantee you is that I always speak for truth and for whatever I believe to be true.
December 21st, 2006 at 9:22 am
Ray,
Google search is very powerful. Back in April, I had a page on the brochure of my “yet-to-be” money management investment company with his name in it. Amazingly, it was picked out through someone searching it. Since then, I have removed that page.
I have searched for this guy many times, and can only come up with so much info. There is even a blogger site for him. Bigpicture.typepad.com has once featured him/his theory.
I believe that he probably only has written one book. From the title of the book, it seemed to be about Roman Empire and inflation. I cannot find his book on Amazon, but once I saw someone selling his book. Guess how much for a “history” book. Some 76 US$!!! I didn’t buy it because I think it’s too much for a history book. But if it has anything related to his economics theories, I would buy it right away!
There had been a couple of legally related websites speaking up for this guy. Certainly, his constitutional rights have been violated, because he did not get his due trial in a timely manner. I forgot which constitution it was that was mentioned in those articles written by lawyers, but with all due respect, there is something really really seriously WRONG about him being in the jail without a trial.
December 21st, 2006 at 10:50 am
Awesome Frugal. I can’t blame you for not writing about this earlier, though I’m glad you did now so novices like me find some direction.
December 21st, 2006 at 11:07 am
I found the his exact words on the internet. Obviously, because I only had my memory of his words to rely on after Feb 2000, there are some differences between what I said above, and below.
I put in the boldface. He didn’t say “deal of the century”. I went back on Kitco and checked the historical price of gold. Gold didn’t break $400 after 2000, but instead went down to about $255. I’m pretty sure it didn’t go below his target of $252.50 to qualify as a bottom. But if he was around with his computer models, he definitely will be able to tell you whether gold bottomed or not.
The above text was written in Nov 18, 1999. He was carefully watching whether S&P 500 will “blow up” in 2000 by exceeding his target near 1500. S&P 500 peaked out at 1527, and again I couldn’t tell whether S&P 500 blew up or not because it was TOO close to his target. He was jailed in early Jan 2000 if I recall correctly.
Somehow his target numbers are like strange attractors in chaos theory. You simply can’t tell whether it got there or not to make the turning point.
Things have changed obviously since Nov 1999. But I wonder what he meant by “buy of the next century”. When his office was raided and assets confiscated, they found lots of Roman ancient coins and gold coin/bar.
I know that he has also alluded to other alternative scenarios for gold extending its run.
December 21st, 2006 at 12:29 pm
He pleaded guilty in August. He’s a con man. Maybe he’s a con man with some working economic models, but I wouldn’t believe a word he says. Even you understand how ridiculous his pi x 1000 idea is. If he thinks that’s a discovery, he’s not worth putting any trust in.
December 21st, 2006 at 1:49 pm
Sam,
You are being self-contradictory. If you accept his success of predicting stock market crashes in 1990 in Japan and 1987 in US, then a person like him has no need to con money. He can pretty much trade his way to financial success. It’s like a midas touch. I believe logically one can choose to believe in the following two scenarios:
1. He is a con man, and all of his past success were all made up.
2. He is not a con man, and he was successful in what he was doing.
However, given the history of what happened, he DID predict those two stock market crashes with great success, not to mention so many other predictions.
Irrespective of his success, he is a man with his constitutional rights violated. That is a simple fact.
December 21st, 2006 at 3:38 pm
Did he make predictions for silver (or gold) that apply to 2007 and beyond? What are the consequences for precious metals of a broad market top in February 2007? Another precious metal nosedive along with the broad market like in May/June 2006?
December 21st, 2006 at 4:40 pm
Things have changed. Initially he was not expecting a blow-up in S&P 500 in 2000 (when he said in 1999). But it turned out not to be the case. So I expect that there would have been some change in “scripts”.
He did say that it’s possible for commodity to continue its run into 2011/2012.
The only thing that kind of worried me is about the “blow-up” in gold in the first half of 2006. It was close to parabolic, and yet not quite. I really expected more fireworks and more market participants at the top. Again, I cannot tell for sure. And therefore, I have been expecting a relatively average performance of PM for a slightly longer period. But I was holding for the hope of PM rising into 1st quarter of 2007 too. Looks like it may not happen.
The only thing now that one can do is to watch the markets carefully. But certainly I and many other pundits can be wrong. In that case, you probably will see my net worth shrinks quite significantly.
Play safe, but invest in where you believe.
December 22nd, 2006 at 12:31 am
Quite an intresting read, I did do some reasearch on him and read about his models. I was wondering if you know if he had any economic models that show the turning points in a any given year?
Keep up the great work, I realy enjoy your articles.
December 22nd, 2006 at 9:24 am
No, there is no info at all, unless you have his computer model.
Those turning points may change in time too, usually they all come with some targets. He can also predict PANIC days, where the volatility (big up or big down) is much much greater.
The way that I understand his models is like this: money/capital is like water flow or wave. When majority of the sources of money from around the world all comes together, you get a boom/bubble. There will be price targets along the way for decision points. At every decision point, it is possible for the waves to recede or continue forward. However, both have different consequences (like S&P 500 exceeding 1500 meant that the bull market will be over, instead of continuing towards 2002/2003).
Now, how do you know whether the waves turned back or have gone forward? The only way is to watch ALL financial data around the globe, and track where the money is going. I believe that he has the MOST complete model which uses all international data from all markets. Such modelling in general is inconceivable for anyone to do. Usually, if you can take a single market and do proper analysis, that’s GREAT already. However, the reason that most models don’t work is that they are INCOMPLETE. You MUST account for all money flows to be accurate in modelling. Your models can never be accurate, when Fed is printing so much money through repo, or when there are more international investment money coming in.
So that’s the principles behind his models. But no one knows how he did it.
Again, that’s one of the reasons that he commented on the feasibility of long term economic forecasting. Economics is not random and probabilistic like quantum mechanics. It’s like classical mechanics. And the tidal wave 8.6 years later is caused by the tidal wave 8.6 years earlier. You may be able to intervene/change directions somewhat, but the “energy” from the previous wave will be there to make the next wave. And when all the waves join together, they will make a big wave.
I think he is truly a genius. It’s so sad that the world cannot accept any kinds of “prophets”. In the history of mankind, most “prophets” are killed because the existing authorities are afraid of their power. So I guess either the prophets get killed or silenced, or they can choose to be silent themselves, so that no one will ever find out about them.
December 22nd, 2006 at 9:33 am
Frugal,
I was looking at similar things just a couple of days ago.
If you don’t mind I’ll post a couple links here:
http://www.nowandfutures.com/forecast.html
http://www.nowandfutures.com/buscycle.htm
If you follow these links you will find an archive of a now-defunct defense fund for said individual.
For those interested in Sornette:
http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/
The work was interesting. I remember following him closely around 2002-2003 which unfortunately cost me dearly.
December 22nd, 2006 at 11:01 am
The mid-cycle date from this guy’s model was 11/7/2002, almost right at the mid-point of the double bottom of S&P 500. I didn’t buy at all, because I thought that if PM would be going high in 2007 date, then stock market would probably fall towards 2007 date. In fact, even after May 2006 this year, I still cannot tell at all which market will be falling/rising towards 2007 date. I thought that there would be a possibility of stock market falling all the way towards 2007 date.
Sornette’s work is only based on the curve of price. It will be subjected to many alterations of capital flows. But I believe that his work can probably catch the very last stage of bubble accurately (when significant amount of capitals have all come together already, and outside influences cannot exert too much more influences). The rest of the time may be much harder to detect.
By the way, I want to mention another prediction that this guy made (which again I can’t recall exactly all the details). He said that in the USA by 2000 or 2004 or 2008, a president from independents (non-Democrat and non-Republic) will be elected. One of the keys to his models is that he observe how the economic confidence fluctuates in between private and government sectors, and so I am guessing that his computer model is telling him an upcoming LOW confidence in the government. And so he probably interpreted in his own way as above.
I read that, and I told myself, this guy is nuts. So I printed out that page, and stuffed it into the bottom of my drawer (which I couldn’t find it anymore after an hour search yesterday. I probably threw it away in 2000). So I told myself, okay, I will keep this page, and see what happens. Guess what? In year 2000, the day after election, the United States does NOT know who the president is because the election votes were too close. It was a total chaos. I almost wanted to laugh, and realized that his prediction probably has unfolded in a different scenario.
In fact, as I later learned, it’s very difficult for an independents to participate in presidential elections due to some stupid technicalities in US constitutions. Ralph Nader dropped out from election and complained about those problems on TV once.
December 22nd, 2006 at 11:59 am
For your benefits, here are his cycle dates (calculated from my own software, which accounted all leap years, and 3.1416). If you have his dates, those are the most accurate. Otherwise, I believe my dates are the most accurate. This is based on the only known cycle date of 7/20/1998 from his past writings (I have 7/19/1998). I’ve back-tested, and 1987/10/19 stock market crash was the 1/4 cycle date 10/18. And 1929 stock market crash, the high in dow jones was on 1929/9/3 instead of 1929/9/27. For every cycle, there may be a 1 to 2 day difference. I believe that there is no accumulated errors cycle after cycle. But again, I’m not totally sure. The accumulated error should be 1 day max for each cycle I believe. You will also need to ignore the LOW/HIGH which can be meaningless sometimes. As he said, a HIGH in one market can be a LOW in another market. I also added 1/8, and -1/8 dates which are not in his model, just in case if I get his LOW/HIGH in the opposite directions. But I known for certain that cycle and mid-cycle dates are the most significant dates in general for LOW/HIGH of the different markets.
LOW The 0/8 date is 1925/6/10
The 1/8 date is 1926/7/7
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1927/8/4
LOW The 3/8 date is 1928/8/31
HIGH The mid date is 1929/9/27
LOW The -3/8 date is 1930/10/25
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1931/11/22
The -1/8 date is 1932/12/18
LOW The cycle date is 1934/1/15
The 1/8 date is 1935/2/11
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1936/3/10
LOW The 3/8 date is 1937/4/7
HIGH The mid date is 1938/5/5
LOW The -3/8 date is 1939/6/2
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1940/6/29
The -1/8 date is 1941/7/26
LOW The cycle date is 1942/8/23
The 1/8 date is 1943/9/19
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1944/10/16
LOW The 3/8 date is 1945/11/13
HIGH The mid date is 1946/12/10
LOW The -3/8 date is 1948/1/7
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1949/2/3
The -1/8 date is 1950/3/2
LOW The cycle date is 1951/3/30
The 1/8 date is 1952/4/25
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1953/5/23
LOW The 3/8 date is 1954/6/20
HIGH The mid date is 1955/7/18
LOW The -3/8 date is 1956/8/14
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1957/9/11
The -1/8 date is 1958/10/8
LOW The cycle date is 1959/11/5
The 1/8 date is 1960/12/1
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1961/12/29
LOW The 3/8 date is 1963/1/26
HIGH The mid date is 1964/2/22
LOW The -3/8 date is 1965/3/21
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1966/4/18
The -1/8 date is 1967/5/15
LOW The cycle date is 1968/6/11
The 1/8 date is 1969/7/8
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1970/8/5
LOW The 3/8 date is 1971/9/2
HIGH The mid date is 1972/9/29
LOW The -3/8 date is 1973/10/27
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1974/11/24
The -1/8 date is 1975/12/21
LOW The cycle date is 1977/1/17
The 1/8 date is 1978/2/13
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1979/3/13
LOW The 3/8 date is 1980/4/9
HIGH The mid date is 1981/5/6
LOW The -3/8 date is 1982/6/3
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1983/7/1
The -1/8 date is 1984/7/27
LOW The cycle date is 1985/8/24
The 1/8 date is 1986/9/20
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1987/10/18
LOW The 3/8 date is 1988/11/14
HIGH The mid date is 1989/12/12
LOW The -3/8 date is 1991/1/9
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1992/2/6
The -1/8 date is 1993/3/4
LOW The cycle date is 1994/4/1
The 1/8 date is 1995/4/28
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1996/5/25
LOW The 3/8 date is 1997/6/22
HIGH The mid date is 1998/7/19
LOW The -3/8 date is 1999/8/16
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2000/9/13
The -1/8 date is 2001/10/10
LOW The cycle date is 2002/11/7
The 1/8 date is 2003/12/4
HIGH The 1/4 date is 2004/12/31
LOW The 3/8 date is 2006/1/28
HIGH The mid date is 2007/2/25
LOW The -3/8 date is 2008/3/24
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2009/4/21
The -1/8 date is 2010/5/18
LOW The cycle date is 2011/6/15
The 1/8 date is 2012/7/11
HIGH The 1/4 date is 2013/8/8
LOW The 3/8 date is 2014/9/5
HIGH The mid date is 2015/10/2
LOW The -3/8 date is 2016/10/29
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2017/11/26
The -1/8 date is 2018/12/23
LOW The cycle date is 2020/1/20
The 1/8 date is 2021/2/15
HIGH The 1/4 date is 2022/3/15
LOW The 3/8 date is 2023/4/12
HIGH The mid date is 2024/5/9
LOW The -3/8 date is 2025/6/6
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2026/7/4
The -1/8 date is 2027/7/31
LOW The cycle date is 2028/8/27
December 22nd, 2006 at 12:45 pm
I just realized that he is not counting the extra day in the leap years. I guess that makes sense in a way too. Here are the revised days, which is closer to his dates.
LOW The 0/8 date is 1925/5/24
The 1/8 date is 1926/6/20
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1927/7/18
LOW The 3/8 date is 1928/8/15
HIGH The mid date is 1929/9/11
LOW The -3/8 date is 1930/10/9
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1931/11/6
The -1/8 date is 1932/12/3
LOW The cycle date is 1933/12/31
The 1/8 date is 1935/1/28
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1936/2/25
LOW The 3/8 date is 1937/3/25
HIGH The mid date is 1938/4/21
LOW The -3/8 date is 1939/5/19
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1940/6/15
The -1/8 date is 1941/7/13
LOW The cycle date is 1942/8/10
The 1/8 date is 1943/9/6
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1944/10/4
LOW The 3/8 date is 1945/11/1
HIGH The mid date is 1946/11/28
LOW The -3/8 date is 1947/12/26
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1949/1/23
The -1/8 date is 1950/2/19
LOW The cycle date is 1951/3/19
The 1/8 date is 1952/4/16
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1953/5/14
LOW The 3/8 date is 1954/6/11
HIGH The mid date is 1955/7/8
LOW The -3/8 date is 1956/8/5
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1957/9/1
The -1/8 date is 1958/9/29
LOW The cycle date is 1959/10/27
The 1/8 date is 1960/11/23
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1961/12/21
LOW The 3/8 date is 1963/1/18
HIGH The mid date is 1964/2/14
LOW The -3/8 date is 1965/3/14
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1966/4/11
The -1/8 date is 1967/5/8
LOW The cycle date is 1968/6/5
The 1/8 date is 1969/7/3
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1970/7/31
LOW The 3/8 date is 1971/8/28
HIGH The mid date is 1972/9/24
LOW The -3/8 date is 1973/10/22
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1974/11/18
The -1/8 date is 1975/12/16
LOW The cycle date is 1977/1/13
The 1/8 date is 1978/2/9
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1979/3/9
LOW The 3/8 date is 1980/4/6
HIGH The mid date is 1981/5/3
LOW The -3/8 date is 1982/5/31
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1983/6/28
The -1/8 date is 1984/7/25
LOW The cycle date is 1985/8/22
The 1/8 date is 1986/9/19
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1987/10/17
LOW The 3/8 date is 1988/11/14
HIGH The mid date is 1989/12/11
LOW The -3/8 date is 1991/1/8
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1992/2/4
The -1/8 date is 1993/3/4
LOW The cycle date is 1994/4/1
The 1/8 date is 1995/4/28
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1996/5/26
LOW The 3/8 date is 1997/6/23
HIGH The mid date is 1998/7/20
LOW The -3/8 date is 1999/8/17
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2000/9/14
The -1/8 date is 2001/10/11
LOW The cycle date is 2002/11/8
The 1/8 date is 2003/12/6
HIGH The 1/4 date is 2005/1/3
LOW The 3/8 date is 2006/1/31
HIGH The mid date is 2007/2/27
LOW The -3/8 date is 2008/3/27
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2009/4/23
The -1/8 date is 2010/5/21
LOW The cycle date is 2011/6/18
The 1/8 date is 2012/7/15
HIGH The 1/4 date is 2013/8/12
LOW The 3/8 date is 2014/9/9
HIGH The mid date is 2015/10/6
LOW The -3/8 date is 2016/11/3
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2017/12/1
The -1/8 date is 2018/12/28
LOW The cycle date is 2020/1/25
The 1/8 date is 2021/2/22
HIGH The 1/4 date is 2022/3/22
LOW The 3/8 date is 2023/4/19
HIGH The mid date is 2024/5/16
LOW The -3/8 date is 2025/6/13
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2026/7/10
The -1/8 date is 2027/8/7
LOW The cycle date is 2028/9/4
The 1/8 date is 2029/10/1
HIGH The 1/4 date is 2030/10/29
LOW The 3/8 date is 2031/11/26
HIGH The mid date is 2032/12/23
LOW The -3/8 date is 2034/1/20
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2035/2/17
The -1/8 date is 2036/3/16
LOW The cycle date is 2037/4/13
The 1/8 date is 2038/5/11
HIGH The 1/4 date is 2039/6/8
LOW The 3/8 date is 2040/7/6
HIGH The mid date is 2041/8/2
LOW The -3/8 date is 2042/8/30
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2043/9/26
The -1/8 date is 2044/10/24
LOW The cycle date is 2045/11/21
December 23rd, 2006 at 4:17 pm
Frugal,
Very interesting. If one believe his model which predict that US stock market especially SP500 should do well in the next two years and will be at peak around 2009/4/23 and market start to recover around 2011/6/18. Is that correct? I need to do more reading in the next few days. Thanks for the tip. Have a great holiday.
David
December 23rd, 2006 at 6:11 pm
No, David.
His model is global, not just US. And it means that for every significant date, the peak/bottom can be anywhere in the world in any types of markets. Obviously, it won’t be a tiny stock market in an isolated island country. But for example, it can be Asia as a whole, with a particular theme, I believe.
By the way, I don’t think that every peak/bottom in his model will generate a peak/bottom in some markets. Only with more likelihood, especially for mid-cycle and cycle dates.
December 27th, 2006 at 10:45 am
Frugal,
Happy holidays! Thanks for sharing your thought. I benefited quite a bit on your energy suggestion a few month ago.
I travled to China a few times a year and truly believe that oil price can only go up. Do you still high on the oil?
Regards,
David
December 27th, 2006 at 8:55 pm
David,
I’m investing in energy for the long term. You can check my portfolio composition everyday to see what’s up with me. As I said, I may be cutting back in anything that I see is somehow synchronous to the general stock market due to upcoming cycle date.
Best luck.
Frugal
February 28th, 2007 at 11:15 pm
WOW! Since Feb 25 was a Sunday i read it simply as the week of Feb 25! WOW!
March 1st, 2007 at 3:23 am
Actually,
my revised date was 2/28/07 in the comments, but it could have been 2/27/07 since I rounded 0.5 day to the next day. My revised date was actually 2/27/07. Not sure where I got the idea of 2/28/07. On the original article by this economist, he actually used 2/27/07, which was the exact date for the 9% fall in Chinese & global stock market.This has been definitely a WOW. There is no guarantee that such dramatic event will occur, but only with a high probability. Sometimes, only internal technical indicators will reach a max, rather than the actual price. You can go back to all the dates and see if something significant has happened around pi dates. Not every date produces a significant event (or maybe people are just not aware of).
March 6th, 2007 at 8:52 pm
Good work!Fascinating reading!
Alain