This has been definitely a WOW. There is no guarantee that such dramatic event will occur, but only with a high probability. Sometimes, only internal technical indicators will reach a max, rather than the actual price. You can go back to all the dates and see if something significant has happened around pi dates. Not every date produces a significant event (or maybe people are just not aware of).

I’m investing in energy for the long term. You can check my portfolio composition everyday to see what’s up with me. As I said, I may be cutting back in anything that I see is somehow synchronous to the general stock market due to upcoming cycle date.

Best luck.

Frugal

Regards,

David

His model is global, not just US. And it means that for every significant date, the peak/bottom can be anywhere in the world in any types of markets. Obviously, it won’t be a tiny stock market in an isolated island country. But for example, it can be Asia as a whole, with a particular theme, I believe.

By the way, I don’t think that every peak/bottom in his model will generate a peak/bottom in some markets. Only with more likelihood, especially for mid-cycle and cycle dates.

David

LOW The 0/8 date is 1925/5/24
The 1/8 date is 1926/6/20
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1927/7/18
LOW The 3/8 date is 1928/8/15
HIGH The mid date is 1929/9/11
LOW The -3/8 date is 1930/10/9
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1931/11/6
The -1/8 date is 1932/12/3
LOW The cycle date is 1933/12/31

The 1/8 date is 1935/1/28
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1936/2/25
LOW The 3/8 date is 1937/3/25
HIGH The mid date is 1938/4/21
LOW The -3/8 date is 1939/5/19
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1940/6/15
The -1/8 date is 1941/7/13
LOW The cycle date is 1942/8/10

The 1/8 date is 1943/9/6
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1944/10/4
LOW The 3/8 date is 1945/11/1
HIGH The mid date is 1946/11/28
LOW The -3/8 date is 1947/12/26
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1949/1/23
The -1/8 date is 1950/2/19
LOW The cycle date is 1951/3/19

The 1/8 date is 1952/4/16
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1953/5/14
LOW The 3/8 date is 1954/6/11
HIGH The mid date is 1955/7/8
LOW The -3/8 date is 1956/8/5
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1957/9/1
The -1/8 date is 1958/9/29
LOW The cycle date is 1959/10/27

The 1/8 date is 1960/11/23
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1961/12/21
LOW The 3/8 date is 1963/1/18
HIGH The mid date is 1964/2/14
LOW The -3/8 date is 1965/3/14
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1966/4/11
The -1/8 date is 1967/5/8
LOW The cycle date is 1968/6/5

The 1/8 date is 1969/7/3
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1970/7/31
LOW The 3/8 date is 1971/8/28
HIGH The mid date is 1972/9/24
LOW The -3/8 date is 1973/10/22
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1974/11/18
The -1/8 date is 1975/12/16
LOW The cycle date is 1977/1/13

The 1/8 date is 1978/2/9
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1979/3/9
LOW The 3/8 date is 1980/4/6
HIGH The mid date is 1981/5/3
LOW The -3/8 date is 1982/5/31
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1983/6/28
The -1/8 date is 1984/7/25
LOW The cycle date is 1985/8/22

The 1/8 date is 1986/9/19
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1987/10/17
LOW The 3/8 date is 1988/11/14
HIGH The mid date is 1989/12/11
LOW The -3/8 date is 1991/1/8
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1992/2/4
The -1/8 date is 1993/3/4
LOW The cycle date is 1994/4/1

The 1/8 date is 1995/4/28
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1996/5/26
LOW The 3/8 date is 1997/6/23
HIGH The mid date is 1998/7/20
LOW The -3/8 date is 1999/8/17
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2000/9/14
The -1/8 date is 2001/10/11
LOW The cycle date is 2002/11/8

The 1/8 date is 2003/12/6
HIGH The 1/4 date is 2005/1/3
LOW The 3/8 date is 2006/1/31
HIGH The mid date is 2007/2/27
LOW The -3/8 date is 2008/3/27
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2009/4/23
The -1/8 date is 2010/5/21
LOW The cycle date is 2011/6/18

The 1/8 date is 2012/7/15
HIGH The 1/4 date is 2013/8/12
LOW The 3/8 date is 2014/9/9
HIGH The mid date is 2015/10/6
LOW The -3/8 date is 2016/11/3
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2017/12/1
The -1/8 date is 2018/12/28
LOW The cycle date is 2020/1/25

The 1/8 date is 2021/2/22
HIGH The 1/4 date is 2022/3/22
LOW The 3/8 date is 2023/4/19
HIGH The mid date is 2024/5/16
LOW The -3/8 date is 2025/6/13
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2026/7/10
The -1/8 date is 2027/8/7
LOW The cycle date is 2028/9/4

The 1/8 date is 2029/10/1
HIGH The 1/4 date is 2030/10/29
LOW The 3/8 date is 2031/11/26
HIGH The mid date is 2032/12/23
LOW The -3/8 date is 2034/1/20
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2035/2/17
The -1/8 date is 2036/3/16
LOW The cycle date is 2037/4/13

The 1/8 date is 2038/5/11
HIGH The 1/4 date is 2039/6/8
LOW The 3/8 date is 2040/7/6
HIGH The mid date is 2041/8/2
LOW The -3/8 date is 2042/8/30
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2043/9/26
The -1/8 date is 2044/10/24
LOW The cycle date is 2045/11/21

LOW The 0/8 date is 1925/6/10
The 1/8 date is 1926/7/7
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1927/8/4
LOW The 3/8 date is 1928/8/31
HIGH The mid date is 1929/9/27
LOW The -3/8 date is 1930/10/25
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1931/11/22
The -1/8 date is 1932/12/18
LOW The cycle date is 1934/1/15

The 1/8 date is 1935/2/11
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1936/3/10
LOW The 3/8 date is 1937/4/7
HIGH The mid date is 1938/5/5
LOW The -3/8 date is 1939/6/2
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1940/6/29
The -1/8 date is 1941/7/26
LOW The cycle date is 1942/8/23

The 1/8 date is 1943/9/19
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1944/10/16
LOW The 3/8 date is 1945/11/13
HIGH The mid date is 1946/12/10
LOW The -3/8 date is 1948/1/7
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1949/2/3
The -1/8 date is 1950/3/2
LOW The cycle date is 1951/3/30

The 1/8 date is 1952/4/25
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1953/5/23
LOW The 3/8 date is 1954/6/20
HIGH The mid date is 1955/7/18
LOW The -3/8 date is 1956/8/14
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1957/9/11
The -1/8 date is 1958/10/8
LOW The cycle date is 1959/11/5

The 1/8 date is 1960/12/1
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1961/12/29
LOW The 3/8 date is 1963/1/26
HIGH The mid date is 1964/2/22
LOW The -3/8 date is 1965/3/21
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1966/4/18
The -1/8 date is 1967/5/15
LOW The cycle date is 1968/6/11

The 1/8 date is 1969/7/8
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1970/8/5
LOW The 3/8 date is 1971/9/2
HIGH The mid date is 1972/9/29
LOW The -3/8 date is 1973/10/27
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1974/11/24
The -1/8 date is 1975/12/21
LOW The cycle date is 1977/1/17

The 1/8 date is 1978/2/13
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1979/3/13
LOW The 3/8 date is 1980/4/9
HIGH The mid date is 1981/5/6
LOW The -3/8 date is 1982/6/3
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1983/7/1
The -1/8 date is 1984/7/27
LOW The cycle date is 1985/8/24

The 1/8 date is 1986/9/20
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1987/10/18
LOW The 3/8 date is 1988/11/14
HIGH The mid date is 1989/12/12
LOW The -3/8 date is 1991/1/9
HIGH The -1/4 date is 1992/2/6
The -1/8 date is 1993/3/4
LOW The cycle date is 1994/4/1

The 1/8 date is 1995/4/28
HIGH The 1/4 date is 1996/5/25
LOW The 3/8 date is 1997/6/22
HIGH The mid date is 1998/7/19
LOW The -3/8 date is 1999/8/16
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2000/9/13
The -1/8 date is 2001/10/10
LOW The cycle date is 2002/11/7

The 1/8 date is 2003/12/4
HIGH The 1/4 date is 2004/12/31
LOW The 3/8 date is 2006/1/28
HIGH The mid date is 2007/2/25
LOW The -3/8 date is 2008/3/24
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2009/4/21
The -1/8 date is 2010/5/18
LOW The cycle date is 2011/6/15

The 1/8 date is 2012/7/11
HIGH The 1/4 date is 2013/8/8
LOW The 3/8 date is 2014/9/5
HIGH The mid date is 2015/10/2
LOW The -3/8 date is 2016/10/29
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2017/11/26
The -1/8 date is 2018/12/23
LOW The cycle date is 2020/1/20
The 1/8 date is 2021/2/15
HIGH The 1/4 date is 2022/3/15
LOW The 3/8 date is 2023/4/12
HIGH The mid date is 2024/5/9
LOW The -3/8 date is 2025/6/6
HIGH The -1/4 date is 2026/7/4
The -1/8 date is 2027/7/31
LOW The cycle date is 2028/8/27

Sornette’s work is only based on the curve of price. It will be subjected to many alterations of capital flows. But I believe that his work can probably catch the very last stage of bubble accurately (when significant amount of capitals have all come together already, and outside influences cannot exert too much more influences). The rest of the time may be much harder to detect.

By the way, I want to mention another prediction that this guy made (which again I can’t recall exactly all the details). He said that in the USA by 2000 or 2004 or 2008, a president from independents (non-Democrat and non-Republic) will be elected. One of the keys to his models is that he observe how the economic confidence fluctuates in between private and government sectors, and so I am guessing that his computer model is telling him an upcoming LOW confidence in the government. And so he probably interpreted in his own way as above.

I read that, and I told myself, this guy is nuts. So I printed out that page, and stuffed it into the bottom of my drawer (which I couldn’t find it anymore after an hour search yesterday. I probably threw it away in 2000). So I told myself, okay, I will keep this page, and see what happens. Guess what? In year 2000, the day after election, the United States does NOT know who the president is because the election votes were too close. It was a total chaos. I almost wanted to laugh, and realized that his prediction probably has unfolded in a different scenario.

In fact, as I later learned, it’s very difficult for an independents to participate in presidential elections due to some stupid technicalities in US constitutions. Ralph Nader dropped out from election and complained about those problems on TV once.

I was looking at similar things just a couple of days ago.
If you don’t mind I’ll post a couple links here:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/forecast.html
http://www.nowandfutures.com/buscycle.htm

If you follow these links you will find an archive of a now-defunct defense fund for said individual.

For those interested in Sornette:
http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/

The work was interesting. I remember following him closely around 2002-2003 which unfortunately cost me dearly.

Those turning points may change in time too, usually they all come with some targets. He can also predict PANIC days, where the volatility (big up or big down) is much much greater.

The way that I understand his models is like this: money/capital is like water flow or wave. When majority of the sources of money from around the world all comes together, you get a boom/bubble. There will be price targets along the way for decision points. At every decision point, it is possible for the waves to recede or continue forward. However, both have different consequences (like S&P 500 exceeding 1500 meant that the bull market will be over, instead of continuing towards 2002/2003).

Now, how do you know whether the waves turned back or have gone forward? The only way is to watch ALL financial data around the globe, and track where the money is going. I believe that he has the MOST complete model which uses all international data from all markets. Such modelling in general is inconceivable for anyone to do. Usually, if you can take a single market and do proper analysis, that’s GREAT already. However, the reason that most models don’t work is that they are INCOMPLETE. You MUST account for all money flows to be accurate in modelling. Your models can never be accurate, when Fed is printing so much money through repo, or when there are more international investment money coming in.

So that’s the principles behind his models. But no one knows how he did it.

Again, that’s one of the reasons that he commented on the feasibility of long term economic forecasting. Economics is not random and probabilistic like quantum mechanics. It’s like classical mechanics. And the tidal wave 8.6 years later is caused by the tidal wave 8.6 years earlier. You may be able to intervene/change directions somewhat, but the “energy” from the previous wave will be there to make the next wave. And when all the waves join together, they will make a big wave.

I think he is truly a genius. It’s so sad that the world cannot accept any kinds of “prophets”. In the history of mankind, most “prophets” are killed because the existing authorities are afraid of their power. So I guess either the prophets get killed or silenced, or they can choose to be silent themselves, so that no one will ever find out about them.

He did say that it’s possible for commodity to continue its run into 2011/2012.

The only thing that kind of worried me is about the “blow-up” in gold in the first half of 2006. It was close to parabolic, and yet not quite. I really expected more fireworks and more market participants at the top. Again, I cannot tell for sure. And therefore, I have been expecting a relatively average performance of PM for a slightly longer period. But I was holding for the hope of PM rising into 1st quarter of 2007 too. Looks like it may not happen.

The only thing now that one can do is to watch the markets carefully. But certainly I and many other pundits can be wrong. In that case, you probably will see my net worth shrinks quite significantly.

Play safe, but invest in where you believe.

You are being self-contradictory. If you accept his success of predicting stock market crashes in 1990 in Japan and 1987 in US, then a person like him has no need to con money. He can pretty much trade his way to financial success. It’s like a midas touch. I believe logically one can choose to believe in the following two scenarios:
1. He is a con man, and all of his past success were all made up.
2. He is not a con man, and he was successful in what he was doing.

However, given the history of what happened, he DID predict those two stock market crashes with great success, not to mention so many other predictions.

Irrespective of his success, he is a man with his constitutional rights violated. That is a simple fact.

It has been our fear that gold would rally prematurely and fail to produce a sustainable trend once again going into 2000. In the past, every 8-year cycle in gold has produced an important low and the next target still remains 2000. A low under $252.50 next year will qualify for such an 8-year cycle event that should then be followed by a true bull market into 2007 peaking with the next Economic Confidence Model turning point. Given the fact that we have a Panic Cycle Year in 2005 and the underlying strength of our long-term momentum indicators, it would certainly appear that gold should exceed its 1980 high going into 2007. However, should gold rally into 2000 yet fail to break through the $400 barrier, this will prove to be the kiss of death and we must then be prepared for a collapse into 2003 before concluding this long-term bear market. Our Yearly Bearish Reversal remains at $192 and this is undoubtedly the major long-term support. Should this price level appear next year, then this could be the buy of the next century.

I put in the boldface. He didn’t say “deal of the century”. I went back on Kitco and checked the historical price of gold. Gold didn’t break $400 after 2000, but instead went down to about $255. I’m pretty sure it didn’t go below his target of $252.50 to qualify as a bottom. But if he was around with his computer models, he definitely will be able to tell you whether gold bottomed or not.

The above text was written in Nov 18, 1999. He was carefully watching whether S&P 500 will “blow up” in 2000 by exceeding his target near 1500. S&P 500 peaked out at 1527, and again I couldn’t tell whether S&P 500 blew up or not because it was TOO close to his target. He was jailed in early Jan 2000 if I recall correctly.

Somehow his target numbers are like strange attractors in chaos theory. You simply can’t tell whether it got there or not to make the turning point.

Things have changed obviously since Nov 1999. But I wonder what he meant by “buy of the next century”. When his office was raided and assets confiscated, they found lots of Roman ancient coins and gold coin/bar.

I know that he has also alluded to other alternative scenarios for gold extending its run.

Google search is very powerful. Back in April, I had a page on the brochure of my “yet-to-be” money management investment company with his name in it. Amazingly, it was picked out through someone searching it. Since then, I have removed that page.

I have searched for this guy many times, and can only come up with so much info. There is even a blogger site for him. Bigpicture.typepad.com has once featured him/his theory.

I believe that he probably only has written one book. From the title of the book, it seemed to be about Roman Empire and inflation. I cannot find his book on Amazon, but once I saw someone selling his book. Guess how much for a “history” book. Some 76 US$!!! I didn’t buy it because I think it’s too much for a history book. But if it has anything related to his economics theories, I would buy it right away!

There had been a couple of legally related websites speaking up for this guy. Certainly, his constitutional rights have been violated, because he did not get his due trial in a timely manner. I forgot which constitution it was that was mentioned in those articles written by lawyers, but with all due respect, there is something really really seriously WRONG about him being in the jail without a trial.

Thanks for the interesting article, I enjoyed it immensely.