My 1st Million At 33 – yes, you can do it too

Look at the following charts from stockcharts.com:

The first chart is the CRB, which was a more pronounced bull market in the USA. The bottom chart with $CRB divided by $USD (US dollar index) shows that commodity markets were ranged bound in the last two years priced in US dollar index (or a bucket of international currencies), and seem to have a bottom at about 3.30 for the last two years. Both charts have fallen under 200 days MA however. I believe determining whether the international commodity market has broken down is very important. If the commodity market priced internationally is not broken down, then it should be positive for BOTH stock and commodity markets towards 2009.

Obviously, using $USD index is still somewhat faulty since it doesn’t take the currency values of the major commodity consumers into account. The best chart would be constructed from all currencies, weighted by the amount of commodities that each country consumes. But this is the best that I can chart. You will need to combine both $CRB and $CRB:$USD in a weighted fashion to account for US contribution. Of course, China/India are still missing in the combined pictures. Here is the contribution for each currency in USD index.

The bull market in the past has been more pronounced priced in $US. But nevertheless, it has been a bull market in all currencies until the recent “breakdown”. Let’s see if $CRB:$USD will turn up in the next couple of months.