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  • Shih…signs of war?

    Posted by Frugal on January 10th, 2007

    Reading this article from Baltimore Chronicle and this one from financialsense is making me nervous. The news of Bush wanting to send more troops in for no clear purpose is getting alarming (link #1, link #2, link #3). I hope there is no war. I hate wars, period.

    The leaders in Iran seem to be way-over their heads, while Israel is always aggressive in pre-emptively defending herself. This looks like an almost perfect “recipe” for conflicts. Iran however would be very different from Iraq or Lebanon. Iran not only is quite strong, but also can potentially shut down the Humus(?) strait that controls flowthrough of about 20% of global oil production.

    I can’t nor want to imagine what kinds of social havoc may be caused due to a outbreak of war between Israel/Iran. Oil/gold will most likely go up big time. And I actually believe that US Fed would take this chance to lower short-term interest rate and try to duplicate their success campaign after 911. But it wouldn’t be the same everytime. For one, commodity prices will go up big time. I’m guessing that they may use the core rate that excludes both energy & food, and telegraph that the rise in commodity would be just temporary due to a temporary war.

    Anyway. I truly hope nothing terrible will happen.

    P.S. I wrote this about 2 weeks ago. Just this past weekend, I saw another more concrete report on Israel’s plan in attacking Iran. And Israel’s plan includes the option of using “low-yield” nuclear bunker busters. I can’t believe it is even considered, my dear God.


    More related posts:
  • The Timing of A War With Iran
  • First Sign of World War III?

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    4 Responses to “Shih…signs of war?”

    1. SPC Thompson Says:

      You are right to be nervous. The Government makes sure they know more then the public. Why are 20,000 more troops going? I might be one of them going for round two. I do feel its because that part of the world is unstable not because the President made mastakes like he says in Iraq.

    2. Mark Says:

      Looks like it’s time to go long on gold & oil again :)

    3. Frugal Says:

      SPC Thompson,
      No matter what happens, be safe, and may God be with you.

    4. Frugal Says:

      Mark,
      If you don’t have any stake, maybe it’s a good idea to pick something up in those sectors. But as I have said in my previous post, don’t count on a war happening.