My 1st Million At 33 – yes, you can do it too

Market will again trade in a tight range before the Fed meeting. With $USD trading at the important technical level, US Fed can ill-afford to cut interest rate.

This bull market has simply been incredible. Just one year ago, S&P 500 was at about 122 around last May. A year later S&P 500 is up by almost 25%. Yet the weird thing is that last May when market corrects, majority of people was scared, but now majority of people thinks economy is doing just great, even with the BIGGEST bubble in human history (US housing market) just bursted. Perception can be deception.

Were you that smart to buy with both hands last June? Ask yourself then maybe you won’t be that smart either to sell out your stake at the top?

Of course, with Bernanke’s monetary helicopter being skillfully piloted by Paulson (originally from Goldman Sachs), market just keeps going up, with all kinds of private equity deals forming the best firework show.

Unfortunately for David Tice, the BEARX bear fund manager, and all the bears out there, they may be right about all the fundamental analysis, but they may not make any money. Calculating the singularity point of US GDP, and possibly notional value of deritivates, human population, etc. the mathematical singularity may not come for another 40 years. To be shorting against the market for the long term is probably a road to bankruptcy.

In any case, for the short term I believe that the upside of this market is limited, while the probability of downside is more likely to be bigger. After 25% rise in S&P500 since last year, are you still expecting another 20%? Oh, yeah, of course, I forgot that the US economy is in very “good” shape (same as in 2000).

Best luck.

P.S. I’m shorting QQQQ, XHB.