Selling Time is Almost Here If Not Already
Posted by Frugal on June 6th, 2007
The market is falling today because Fed is telegraphing that there is no rate cut coming. Markets obviously don’t like it. Plus the rate raise from European market and a crippled Shanghai at some 15% off, gradually the picture is turning worse. The market is falling at an earlier date than I am expecting. Next week is option expiry week. I expect at least some short term support until next week. Distribution of stocks is going on as we speak.
While I’m hoping the market to go up one more time, I am ready to sell more if things don’t turn around. I expect Fed to be market unfriendly going forward. With the 30-year bond breaking 5%, a slowdown in mortgage financing is underway. That will be very bad for a housing market at a high inventory. With the summer “peak” selling season for houses supposedly here, mortgage rates cannot go too high. Bond market is definitely suffering from the strength in equity market, and that has to change.
The key is interest rate (in bond market) these days. The higher the interest rates go, the higher likelihold the stock market will go down.
Are we there yet?
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