Geez, 90% down first, and then 200% up later
Posted by Frugal on October 23rd, 2007
I tell you, gold junior stocks are not for the faint of the heart.
One of my biggest loser that I posted in my open position was KXL.V. I bought it at about 2.5, and it went down by some 90% after that. Gradually it recovered a little. Then boom last Friday, it went up by 48% in a day rising from $2 to $2.96, to finish off a long recovery from my 90% loss.
How do you invest in such stocks? The only way is not to be too greedy/fearful about it. You can control your own emotion by controlling the size of the position that you take. This will definitely limit its total volatility on your portfolio, and of course, it will reduce the potential gain/loss to you.
But at least it’s better than being emotional about your position, and make the wrong trades at exactly the wrong time most of the time.
Certainly the less emotional you get about your own money, the better performance you are likely to get. This is always true. And the only way to achieve that is NOT to be too greedy when getting long.
Size your position properly. And that’s the only way that you can employ Kelly’s criterion with any possibility of success.
P.S. I’m still holding KXL.V, but that doesn’t mean that I recommend buying it right now.
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