Dow Theory Had a Sell Signal
Posted by Frugal on November 26th, 2007
Monday’s opening will be interesting, assuming that half-day trading on Friday doesn’t count much.
On Wednesday, the venerable Dow Theory generated a sell signal, closing below August 16th’s closing level. The weird thing is that on August 16th, the intraday level is actually lower than the intraday level on last Wednesday. Although I give importance to closing prices, I give even more importance to the intraday prices. In any case, the Dow Theorist Richard Russell had declared that the primary bear market is or will be upon us. And I had declared a bear market back on August 13th.
In any case, I’m expecting a brief stock market rally. And I believe it should be a perfect chance to lighten up.
However, I’m expecting precious metals to rally further. The more I looked at the charts of HUI, the more I believe that the brief correction is over. I have took back all of my past sales of PM stocks back. I have not decided that whether I should continue to put my cash for use.
What Frank Barbera said on financialsense is literally scaring me. He expects a wipe out in the general stock market in the next year or two. That is a serious deflation. I’m not sure if I agree with him.
In any case, I’m less pre-occupied with the general market. The more important thing is about my PM positions. I’ve thought thru this many times. My conclusion is that the “best way” for Mr.Market to minimize the wealth of all participants is by making the gold & gold stocks to break new highs until all the people who are out-of-the market or who have sold to be continued to be out-of-market. PM action is more like climbing up the wall of worry, rather than slipping down the rope of home currently.
Anyway, on Friday, gold is only some $20 to $30 away from the all time high. My current guess is that $850 will be broken before end of year or end of next January. We shall see.
More related posts:
Digg it Del.icio.us Reddit Furl BlinkList Newsvine Yahoo MyWeb





