Helene Meisler’s timing is not perfect
Posted by Frugal on November 20th, 2007
At the thestreet.com, Helene Meisler is one of my most respected technicians. I currently don’t have an active subscription to her publication. But occasionally I watch for her words. Unfortunately, listening to her words this time around cost me a small fortune.
I was big-shorting through naked calls into November expiration. However, last week, she put out words saying that the a bottom is likely in. Because of the big financial rallies, it scared me out of my big positions and I trim my gain/losses. Then the next day, she came out and said that because of so many bottom callers (and she is one of them), the bottoms are likely not in yet. And then she said that there may be a Thanksgiving rally coming next week. And so I covered my Dec call positions again. And this Monday, she said that Thanksgiving rallies won’t be as strong as the previous counter-rallies. Of course, Monday stocks went down again.
Oh well, thanks but no thanks. So many flip-flops are not very helpful. And it goes to show you how uncertain the times are, even for a good market technician.
I’m still planning to open short positions if the market has a short-term rally. However, I’m going to hold onto my increasingly worthless $US for a little bit longer. Don’t plan to go into markets just yet. But maybe the bottom could be quite close, although the rally could be quite short too.
Frank Barbera came out and said that gold may be in for a big rally soon, bottoming right here with a 9-day RSI value of 40. Jack Chan’s MACD indicator however has turned bearish on gold and gold stocks. I’m going to be erring on the conservative side, and sit tight.
Sometimes, the hardest thing about investing is doing just nothing.
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November 20th, 2007 at 11:32 am
I sit back and observe a person’s track record. Jack Chan has my highest respect because he is disciplined and doesn’t make predictions like most analysts. Bill Cara has impressively called the top in gold’s recent downturn.
November 20th, 2007 at 5:50 pm
Frank Barbera has impressed me greatly with a few calls.. a major low in the XAU in may 2005 http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/barbera/2005/0519.html and a top in gold in may 06 (via his GST newsletter)..
March 6th, 2009 at 12:17 am
Helene Meisler has some idea, but her call of a major rally at the end of Feb was oblivious to the fact that the world is racing towards the Great Depression. The only plays are shorts, bonds and precious metals, the US will be a 3rd world economy by the end of 2010!!