Precious metals displaying amazing relative strength
Posted by Frugal on January 23rd, 2008
I truly expected that I was going to have a BIG down day yesterday. But amazingly it went so much better than I expected. The big caps in PM still held up or went up under such a stormy weather. Of course, needless to say, physical metals simply went straight up again after Fed cutting 0.75%.
Does that mean PM is in safehaven? Absolutely NOT. There is still a possibility of gold pulling back to $800 (or even $700 according to some pessimists out there). If gold goes to $800, and with a gold-to-XAU ratio of 5.4, you get a XAU of about 150, and possibly a HUI of 375 (some 20% off from current level), right in line with the support lines of both indexes. If gold goes to $720, then XAU will probably go to 128, and HUI may go back to 320 (some 30% off from current level). I see that the first scenario probably may hapeen with 75% probability, and the second scenario with 10% probability. Precious metals ALWAYS surprise investors/traders on both upside and downside. So I keep expecting the surprises to come.
Today’s market will be ugly again, because of the outlook from Apple (AAPL). I should have shorted AAPL when it broke 160/180. QQQQ is going down again. And I am short via naked deep-in-the money puts in QID only for 2.5% of my portfolio value.
Buckle up again. It won’t be pretty.
Look at where we are today. Who are the real losers when the housing buble burst, when I first claimed back in 2006? It simply disgusts me why and how everyone needs to be put up with all the pain along with the real culprits of the housing bubbles. Unfortunately, that’s how our financial systems work. Everything and everyone are inter-linked together.
Best luck and take care.
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January 23rd, 2008 at 8:18 pm
Well this is a great time to snatch up some of those companies that aren’t tied to this credit crunch hiccup. Those strong multinationals like Caterpillar and McDonald’s are excellent due to their foreign investment. As you said, Apple is a great stock for the long term if they can just keep coming out with innovative products and keep their customer service high. Buy Cheap!
January 24th, 2008 at 8:43 am
I don’t think the bottom is in yet. But it’s probably building it.
June 16th, 2009 at 9:23 am
A long time has passed since you wrote this but it still holds true. Precious metals are still a good place to be, especially right now when prices of silver and platinum are so low and will shoot up as soon as our commodities bull market revs up again (and it will).