Gold hit $1000!
Posted by Frugal on March 14th, 2008
I guess I was just one week earlier exactly.
Yes, gold is quite high. But yes, we are also early in the wave 3 in the Elliot wave. I believe by Elliot wave count, we are in wave 1 of wave 3, and we can enter corrective wave 2 ANYTIME.
I’ve determined my wave counts based on sentiments which I believe to be more accurate than pure wave counting. The sentiment in wave 3 from Wikipedia is here:
Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to “get in on a pullback” will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three’s midpoint, “the crowd” will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.
Indeed, some stories that I’ve heard can be scary. There are many reports of people selling their old jewelries, increasing scrap supplies. And there are many stories of people who finally made their first purchase of gold in the $900s. But it’s in the middle of wave three, where the crowd will start to be right, meaning that people taking contrarian viewpoints will be wrong.
I will write in more details on how I reached my conclusion on the wave counts. But the bottomline is that by such wave counts, it is obvious that this gold bull market is going to last much longer than any of the “wallstreet analysts” expect.
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March 16th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
Sell, sell, sell! Don’t touch buying with a ten foot pole!