My 1st Million At 33 - yes, you can do it too

There have been several reports of people not being able to buy silver coins at the local dealers. Initially, I bought into their story of silver shortage. However, after more thoughts, I am not so sure if that is really true.

The current shortage in silver seems to be caused by the minting capacity and human labor to process and ship orders rather than an actual shortage. Of course, this is just my opinion. I remember back in 2002 or 2003, when I tried to refinance my mortgage, it was really hard to talk to a loan officer because of a huge demand. There was certainly not a shortage of money to be loaned out. But there was certainly a shortage in loan officers to process these loans. I think the silver shortage is more of a shortage in human labor rather than a real shortage. And one thing is for sure, and that is a very big demand for silver coins, while very few people are selling.

The cause for the apparent “shortage” is important in determining which stage we are in in this bull market (if it’s not done yet). What does such a big investment and retail demand represents for silver, and precious metal complex as a whole? I almost want to say that there is a higher probability of PM just going thru wave 5 of wave 1, rather than a wave 3 of wave 1 or 3 or wave 5 of A wave 5 represents more of a mania and an important top.

If it was a wave 5 of wave 1, then PM will really have some good amount of correction ahead. Right now, I just cannot tell, even though Mark Hulbert at Marketwatch.com, and Bob Moriarty at 321gold.com are still positive and/or become positive about PM.

I’m not going to get ahead of myself. If it’s a long correction, I will probably ride it out again. By my model calculation, HUI won’t give a buy signal for at least 10 trading days. So I’m going to be patient.

Best luck trading,

Frugal at My 1st Million At 33 .com