The Coming Famine and Hunger
Posted by Frugal on April 4th, 2008
I have been worried about the global food supply, and I called up one of my friends who is an owner of an agricultural food import/export business.
I asked his opinions on how he thinks about the recent surge in food prices. He told me that it’s the first time that he is seeing everything in food going up at all fronts for an extended period of time. And he thinks that these trends are going to last and will be sustainable because of the following factors:
1. Government-mandated fuel additives of ethanol taking away lots of corn supplies.
2. Increased corn acreage is at the expense of decreased acreages for other agricultural products.
3. People in China and India are increasing their living standards.
4. World inventory of grains is at the lowest level in 60 years.
More specifically, I asked what the agricultural producers are doing in response to this problem. He told me that the existing big players are investing the profits into bio-tech to enhance their edges and profit potentials, and they are not expanding the planting acreages dramatically (since it will be to their disadvantage of increasing the supply). I obviously knew about all the above factors last year, but I was more concerned about the future going forward. Unfortunately, the answer that I got was not what I wanted to hear. I told my friend that without increasing food supplies, there may be famine. And his response was that famine will only be in the third world countries.
Well, yes, I know. I didn’t go further on my comments. But that was just what’s on my mind.
Back in 1985, when I was in my early teens, there was a music song that touched me deeply. It was “We are the world”. It made me feel very sad to know that there are people dying of hunger, and going to bed with an empty stomach. And I still remember that it was the first time that I learned about this African country Ethiopia from the song. And that there were some 100 singers who tried to raise money for the hungry people. “We are the world, we are the children….” That was the lyrics from the song. And I couldn’t agree more.
I only hope that we don’t see that happen. But we are indeed crawling towards it, if not happening already. Look at the headlines:
Rice Jumps to Record, Corn Near High as Demand Outpaces Supply.
Fear of unrest mounts as hunger spreads.
(US-exported) Inflation is hitting many foreign countries much harder. One day however the inflation may comes back to US soil with revenge (through currency exchange rate).
The most effective way to solve these problems is not really raising lots of money which will simply cause a different way of food distribution, but rather raising lots of food supply. Food inflation is the harbinger of all inflation. The future does not bode well for paper money. I only hope that farmers will be doing an excellent job for everyone else.
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April 4th, 2008 at 3:41 am
So, if you are that worried about the problem what are you doing to be part of the solution?
You can reduce your meat intake, since meat takes a huge amount of resources. You can increase your CO2 output, since high CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere increase food yields dramatically. You can use local farmers markets and eat locally grown in season foods. Possibly join a CSA in your area so all your vegetables would be locally grown. You also can just wait for solar cycle 24 to ramp up since we’re at the suns lowest output right now and things should ramp up in the next year or two and peak near 2012-2014 or something if I’m looking correctly, which should also increase yields quite nicely.
April 4th, 2008 at 7:03 am
Predictions of worldwide famine have been made since the 60s. The latest that I know of is Lester Brown’s ‘Outgrowing the Earth’, which is quite well-written and scared the crap out of me. However, they’ve never come true, and there’s still a lot of potential for making agriculture more efficient on a small scale.
April 4th, 2008 at 9:52 am
This seems like already happening. I read in the news today that Iflation in India hit 7% mark….that’s outrageous…
April 4th, 2008 at 9:59 pm
For people at the economic margins, inflation is a major issue. Large inreases in the prices of most basic necessities (partly due to rising demand meeting relatively inelastic demand and partly due to currency fluctuations) has the potential to cause significant social unrest in a number of countries.
April 4th, 2008 at 11:03 pm
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April 5th, 2008 at 2:34 am
I invest in agricultural commodities and am looking to buy into agricultural sector stocks too (tractor makers, monsanto and similar), if they get a bit cheaper. But I can see me handing back a lot of any gains in higher grocery bills and even sending cheques to calls for food aid etc as poor nations suffer.
One thing to remember though is it isn’t a static game – people have ignored agriculture for years, but now a lot of money will be going in. So you can expect to see better machinery, new acreage, etc. That will help reduce some of the price pressure, in time.
April 6th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
Tried to buy a pot roast lately? I did on Saturday: between Costco & Safeway, I found two of them, neither especially good, both priced well beyond the po’ folks’ food I remember tough cuts of beef used to be. I could have entertained my guests more cheaply this weekend if I’d bought a couple of steaks and cut them into serving-sized pieces!
How ’bout rye flour? Buckwheat flour? Can’t find them on the shelves of ANY grocery store around here–not Trader Joe’s or Sprouts, either.
Granted, no one in America is going to go hungry for not being able to make a loaf of rye bread or a stack of buckwheat pancakes, and sure, we can do without a pot roast. But…uh…??? No low-end beef? No flour to make a good loaf of bread, anywhere? Wha…?
April 7th, 2008 at 9:42 am
There is a lot of good information here, from the presenter to the comments. I especially agree with Traciatim, that a managed and well thought out strategy for modertation and a mind for sustainability could help offset our current population levels.
Still, people will not be controlled the way they need to for this to happen, and I too fear a massive die off in 3rd world countries where medical benefits have driven life expectancy and mortality rates beyond what the natural environment can sustain. I was 8 when ‘We are the World’ came out, and I was also heavily impacted by it.
I think there is a chance of a severe degredation in Quality of Life across the planet, in the next few years.
Support local farmers, people, and make smart choices!
April 7th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Just planted my garden. If one has the space, it’s becoming more and more a fiscally responsible thing. Tastes great, gives a little exercise, and saves a little money.
April 10th, 2008 at 7:51 am
Totally agree. Becoming vegetarian is the best way to conserve food and reduce CO2 footprint.
There have been MANY callers for great disasters, and there may be more. But I suspect that until the human growth reaches the end-point of exponential growth, all the naysayers will continue to be wrong, but RIGHT in the long term.
Crash will eventually come, but no one knows the exact date. As the Bible says, the DAY will come like a thief, and no one would know.
I will blog this later, but the reasonings are in my “Why stock markets crash” post.
April 23rd, 2008 at 5:20 am
The other day, my preschooler walked up to me, with some corn kernels in her hand, and said, in solemn tones, “Mommy, there’s going to be a famine–if we don’t plant this we will die.”
My teen age daughter, looking freaked out said, “You know, mom, I have had this eerie feeling that we need to plant all of the corn that we possibly can. Now.” Well, guess what I had been feeling in my soul for days before they both said this? Coincidence?