My 1st Million At 33 – yes, you can do it too

“Market Update: For Stocks, The Worst is Over”. That was the headline from Kiplinger’s Personal Finance magazine. Don’t you hate that?

I mean, what’s the chance of the magazine being right? Kiplinger has signed up Glassman and Jeremy Siegel who are mostly bullish. But I just don’t think the worst is over. We are passing thru the eye of the storm. This lull will probably last for some while (yes, I’m temporarily bullish). But the worst is definitely not over for stocks.

The weird thing is that right after Siegel’s article, there is a two-page article on “What’s Bubbling Over Now”. It listed gold, silver, Brazil, Steel, Euro, Oil, Grains, and Treasury notes, but despite the what the title hints, the article is still mostly longer term bullish on all eight items. It’s kind of confusing. I don’t know whether Kiplinger is trying to straddle both sides, cheering for stocks mostly, but don’t want to miss the boat on commodity either. But certainly the two classes of assets are quite different. If you believe in one, you probably don’t believe in another.

Adding to all the confusion, several pundits that I kind of rely on, Bill Cara and Bob Hoye have been turning in very lackluster predictions. Actually, I should have listened to myself more (and I kept repeating this mistake). I think Bob is again too early. Bill on the other hand seems to be flip-floping somewhat. Both are very good stock technicians. But I guess people do fail from time to time.

Based upon Armstrong’s model, I continue to stick to the same forecast. Stocks will be going up, and probably more so for emerging markets. However, maybe 2 to 3 years out, it will be down at least on an inflation-adjusted value. Let’s hope that I’m right, so that we can all get out of our stock positions for the “last” time, before the nasty fall begins.

And I just can’t wait for crude oil to fall. Come on. Give me some discount or sale. I hate to buy full-valued merchandise.