Comments on: When will housing markets bottom?

By: Mike Lautensack

Mike Lautensack — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 01:22:27 +0000

I would also agree that the real estate market will be flat to down for many years and I would not be surprised we are at the same price leverl 10 years form today

Mike

By: bubbletrifecta

bubbletrifecta — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 06:50:52 +0000

Your chart shows data as of January 2007. I wonder how the new chart looks like after the recent wave of foreclosures. Many of the option arm resets scheduled for 2011 have either refinanced or in the worst case simply walked away.

By: Shadox

Shadox — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 03:43:55 +0000

Another interesting thing to consider: if real estate prices stay flat and inflation climbing at a rate of 3%, that’s a real price decline of another 10% to real estate over the next three years. I am with you – I think a real estate recovery is a long way away.

What I am concerned about is that this very unstable economic situation and global political situation (middle east) will send commodity prices even higher, dramatically increase interest rates and put additional pressure on the stock markets.

This is really a tough situation to call. Glad I’m not Bernanke…

By: Amit C

Amit C — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 17:27:23 +0000

What happens to so many people getting onto the multiple income streams model with RE being the main stream is the question.

By: JC

JC — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 14:52:49 +0000

He’s full of it. There is no housing shortage but an oversupply. Real estate prices will not appreciate much for a while, so why buy and be stuck with bills? In Manhattan, they are now offering incentives to renters, ie. one year’s free storage, a spa treatment for your dog, etc.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/29/realestate/29cov.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

By: traineeinvestor

traineeinvestor — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 13:37:07 +0000

It’s an interesting issue. Inflationary pressure should, over time, push up the cost of construction and keep a floor under interest rates. On the other hand, a spiral of declining values, resetting teaser rates, balloon payments falling due and lack of confidence have the potential to keep the market under pressure for some time.

Having gone through this cycle twice (each downturn having different dynamics), I am now quite comfortable buying when the fundamentals stack up and holding for a while (potentially years) rather than trying to time the market too closely. That said, I tend to be quite cautious and always put in enough equity so as to produce at least a break even cash flow on a P+I mortgage.

I’ve already been seen funds which are intended to invest in distressed US real estate being offered here in Hong Kong. Personally, I think it is too soon to jump in.