I’m on vacation
Posted by Frugal on November 17th, 2008
I won’t be posting much until I’m back from my vacation. Annually I use up all of my vacation days just to visit my parents aboard.
In the meantime, hold onto your stock positions. It should turn up soon, I believe. It’s going to be a very difficult market, and it will get even more difficult next year.
I think we will be going into a depression, and then stay in a long recession. Job market will be terrible. Make sure you hold on to your job if you have one already, and good luck in finding your new/next job.
Regards,
Frugal
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November 17th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
Frugal, you’re contradicting yourself. Why should stock prices go up if you predict a depression followed by a long recession?
Long recession means that GDP continues to fall every quarter which indicates that company quarterly reports on revenues (earnings can be manipulated a lot more than revenues) will continue to fall. So you think the multiples should go up while revenues go down?
November 18th, 2008 at 12:26 am
I’m on vacation -
Enjoy your vacation, I just got back from one a month ago and I need another one already. So make the most of it.
I think we may break the SPX 848 and make another leg down then a strong bear market rally as the defensive reaction comes. (Just a gut feeling)
November 18th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Enjoy your vacation and hopefully that will clear your mind.
You can’t honestly believe the market has priced in a depression.
November 19th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
You leave us in such peril.
November 19th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Please help me understand this crazy market…
How low can the DOW go ?? I mean, if it dips below 8,000 like today, can it dip below 7,000 next year? Seriously, isn’t there a math calculation to indicate that a certain level is unlikely for the DOW to dip to.
There must be an economics math formula that can calculate the LOWEST point for the DOW given all the companies represented on that board.
Thanks!!!
November 21st, 2008 at 10:21 am
Mike2,
Low point on DOW is 5500 using the 15 year moving average. That is probably a solid bottom.
Only one person can technically buy (and sell) at the bottom, so you may want to take a big picture approach. In 10 or 15 years it doesn’t really matter if you bought when the DJIA was 5500, 7000 or 8500. Keep some perspective and you will do fine.
Note- there is always a small chance that things are going to crash bigtime and that we are currently at the maximum number of souls on the planet. Should this be true, the concept of infinite growth goes out the window.
Frugal, I changed jobs last month. I’m the CEO of a small company now, at this point I’m the one making the tough business decisions. I can get kicked out due to lack of performance but at the moment I’m in charge of how to shape the company destiny. It’s interesting, that’s for sure.
-Mike
November 22nd, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Mike Hunt,
Thanks for your answer and congrats on your recent appointment.
Cheers,
Mike2
May 8th, 2009 at 5:16 am
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