Obama wins big, and what a non-surprise
Posted by Frugal on November 6th, 2008
When economy sours, people want changes. Both parties caught on Ron Paul’s messages of anti-war, and anti-establishment quickly, muffled out Ron Paul, and carried out the same tune and same tactics (Obama/Hilary for change, and McCain the “maverick”). Well, but will we get changes with Obama as the president?
In fact, I’m going to venture a guess here for the next election. Obama will not get re-elected (assuming that he gets nominated by Democrats again) in the next election. Why? For the same reason that he got elected through a sour economy, he may get voted out through a even worse economy that is going to come. Possibly, the first year is good. But I’m not sure about the later three years. I have nothing against Obama personally. In fact, I’m glad to see a black person gets elected as a US president. Unfortunately, presidents always get blamed for whatever misfortunes that happen during their term, whether it’s their faults or not.
Actually, I hope that I’m dead wrong in my guess for the next election. If I’m wrong, it would mean that the economy is doing better than I expect. However, my opinion is that taking the presidency for the next four years is equivalent to Bernanke taking over from Greenspan. You just can’t do a good job in a terrible state.
The greatest credit/housing bubble has burst, and it’s simply not coming back for at least another 20 years (all financial bubbles won’t reflate in the same thing for at least 20 years). There will be serious consequences for average Americans. United States is treading on the same path as Roman empire. And the political leaders still don’t understand that you can’t solve a financial problem/debt by making money even cheaper. Only fiat money drops from the sky. But whether you print one dollar or 10 trillion dollars, the real overall wealth owned by the society remains the same as before, in terms of minerals, machinery, man-power, etc. Actually, due to the globalization, USA does gain a lot by printing more money, because the net effect is shared among all countries. The only question is that will other countries be willing to continue to partake in the financial irresponsibility of US government and consumers?
My guess would be a “No”. And it should be self-evident from the international reactions to US mortgage crisis.
Let’s see when long term bonds drop, and the current assumption of 6% mortgage rates no longer hold true (but rather 10%?), then we will know where the bottom of housing is.
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November 6th, 2008 at 9:50 am
Martin Hutchinson analyses what a Democrat landslide means for stock market investing. He says nuclear and clean energy stocks, auto manufacturers, generic drug producers and muni bonds are a “buy”. But fossil fuel companies and financial institutions should be avoided.
http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/6-investment-ideas-for-the-obamanomics-era/7951
November 6th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Obama opposed the war from the beginning and is also an anti-establishment type but has the advantage that he did not spend decades in Washington, so I wouldn’t quite say that Ron Paul’s “message” was his and only his. Ron Paul has the disadvantage that when he speaks no one really listens but if Obama says the same things people will listen.
“And the political leaders still don’t understand that you can’t solve a financial problem/debt by making money even cheaper.” So what do you propose? Making credit/money even more expensive? That kind of misstep is like the Fed a la 1930s.
“The only question is that will other countries be willing to continue to partake in the financial irresponsibility of US government and consumers?” If the numbers out of Euroland and Latin America are any indication then the answer is sadly yes they already have. Look at the dollar/euro and pound/dollar crosses. Look at Argentina. The dollar is gaining against most currencies.
November 10th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
How exactly did Obama win big or win a landslide? Economic melt down, incumbent lowest approval ratings ever, lowest congressional approval rations, 2 highly unpopular wars, McCain’s terribly ran campaign, Obama’s very well run campaign, and Obama out spending McCain over 2 to 1, and he could only garner 7% margin in popular vote and didn’t wipe out electoral college? A landslide is Reagan in 1984, not Obama in 2008. People are talking about a mandate for Obama, which is like Bush saying he had a mandate in his 2004 re-election. The American electorate is very fickle and will change on a dime. 10% margin in popular vote I would agree is a solid mandate, which would reflect a wholesale shift in America’s middle electorate. Close, but no cigar, and if there are sweeping “changes” Obama will not get re-elected. At the end of the day, Americans say they want change, but we much prefer the security of consistency and no change. just look at 2 unpopular wars and after nearly 8 years, we are still there. just look at all the ballot measures nixing gay marriage.
economy stupid was definitely the swing voter in this election. people hated bailout. What is the newly self-proclaimed mandate Democrat congress calling for? Auto industry bailout. We’ll have to see what Obama does, but his campaign promise of changing old washington politics doesn’t look very persuasive when you see his whole transition team looking like Clinton’s team. Dems were howling at Bush for his executive orders, and Obama is already calling for sweeping exec orders. yeah, yeah, they are prerogative. But, we’ll see what happens. If anyone thought for a second that very much would change, they are idiots…well, sorry to say americans are idiots, because many voted thinking that the President has sole purview of the economy.
mccain was an absolute idiot, so i was completely shocked at the election results.
November 24th, 2008 at 7:36 am
Indeed the U.S. credit crisis is no longer just a subprime mortgage problem. As the world’s largest economy grapples with the worst housing slump in two decades, people with good credit histories are falling behind on house payments, auto loans and credit cards at an accelerating pace. People have pinned hopes on the new Obama regime to tide over the crisis and hope his team delivers.
December 2nd, 2008 at 7:24 am
The president is a pretty face that calms the masses.. storm congress if you really want some change. People hated Bush because he was an accurate presentation of what you needed to do to be president. Be a complete idiot, Uncle Sam’s puppet, and do nothing. Just like you have the power to do.