Watch for a pullback
Posted by Frugal on November 3rd, 2008
If there comes a pullback, or later in November, one should buy stocks I believe.
Of course, it is going to be a bear rally in my opinion, instead of a new bull market as Bill Cara claims it to be. In my opinion, there is no new bull market for the next 3 years at the minimum (if not for another decade). Only bear market rallies. The bear market rallies are usually much harder to play. Therefore, a conservative trader/investor should not bet the farm on it.
Nevertheless, I believe the intermediate rally should last until next March/April timeframe before the next phase of liquidation.
There is a very strong possibility for a very LOW long-term bottom in 2011/2012 timeframe. One should by all means sell ALL general market stocks (possibly with the exception of precious metals/mining stocks). If you don’t sell this rally, I’m almost certain that you will regret it. 2012 coincides with the 4-year cycle, Martin Armstrong’s economic confidence model, and if you dare to venture into “new age” stuffs, 2012 is the end of a long Mayan calendar.
In any case, I find it interesting that the bigger cycle of 51.6 years with 6 cycles of 8.6 years of Martin Armstrong’s model is very close to the cycle of 52-year calendar round in Mayan calendar. And the fact that the beginning of the 5125 years of the Mayan calendar is about right with the beginning of the Hindu/Chinese history makes the whole thing more interesting.
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November 3rd, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Wow! You are a crazy person. Deleting you from my RSS feed.
November 3rd, 2008 at 4:30 pm
You have lost your mind ever since Cara tricked you into loading up a few months back and caused your net worth to take a 60% HAIRCUT.
November 3rd, 2008 at 6:42 pm
I agree, the general blog and investment advice quality has dropped drastically. Too much opinion (“I believe”??) and sticking to things which have failed (precious metals/mining stocks…)
November 3rd, 2008 at 8:19 pm
This is certainly not an usual market condition, and understandably makes people more confused. I enjoy Frugal’s opinions more than ever. Aren’t we coming for these?
November 4th, 2008 at 9:29 am
I have to agree, here, Frugal. At some point it might be good to admit that one cannot predict the future, one can only make educated guesses based on information available. Lets try and put less ‘faith’ into a subject that doesn’t need any more of it, and more ‘fact’ to back up your opinions.
I’m not here to berate you, as I suspect some others might be, but lets talk about economics and not religion, here, ok? You crossed over that line that you have flirted with many times in the past, in this post. Lets get back on track…
November 5th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
what are you guys complaining about? Just because we go from “near great depression” to “mega market rally” every other day doesn’t mean there isn’t any value here…..oh wait…..never mind.