Obama rally
Posted by Frugal on January 20th, 2009
With a new president, there is new hope.
The short term correction in stock market should be over. Temporary sunny days are here I believe. This is a turning point for sure.
However, to turn the tidal wave resulted from the biggest credit excess, it will take years, and possibly one or two terms of presidency. To think that the economy will zoom back up right away is close to naive.
Again, I advise people to sell this Obama rally. My current projected timing is anywhere from mid-March to late April, and possibly until early June. Take the advantage of the short term rally and go to all cash or cash equivalent (including precious metals).
Year 2010 is going to be another sobering year. Best luck to all of you.
More related posts:
Digg it Del.icio.us Reddit Furl BlinkList Newsvine Yahoo MyWeb
January 20th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
It will be interesting to see if the bankruptcy law that is being considered in Congress will pass.
It seeks to allow a bankruptcy judge modify a mortgage contract.
It will have a huge impact on many loans, and could push more people into Chapter 13 bankruptcy.
Also, it is being said that Obama may sign a moratorium on foreclosures for 90 days. This will be interesting as well.
http://chicago-bankruptcy.blogspot.com/
January 20th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
What Rally? The Dow is still around 8k and SnP is barely above its low from this bear market. I think its too early to speculate on 2010, lets see how 2009 pans out. I think 2009 will find the market bottom. Interest rates will likely rise. Hopefully foreclosures level out and real estate begins to recover. I agree there is much work to do.
January 21st, 2009 at 8:59 am
I think the bottom will be determined by the structure of any future stimulus package. If the government continues to think that things are so bad that we need to throw $850 million at the problem, the people will think it’s that bad too.
On the other hand, if we can keep the governments fingers out of the cooking jar, and the money in the bank instead of the Congress, we should turn around within the next few months.
I’m not holding my breath, though.
Grant
TheCornerOfficeBlog.com
January 21st, 2009 at 5:47 pm
Obama rally? Please. As Dick Morris writes …
“2009-2010 will rank with 1913-14, 1933-36, 1964-65 and 1981-82 as years that will permanently change our government, politics and lives. Just as the stars were aligned for Wilson, Roosevelt, Johnson and Reagan, they are aligned for Obama. Simply put, we enter his administration as free-enterprise, market-dominated, laissez-faire America. We will shortly become like Germany, France, the United Kingdom, or Sweden — a socialist democracy in which the government dominates the economy, determines private-sector priorities and offers a vastly expanded range of services to many more people at much higher taxes….
… In the name of stabilizing the banking system, Obama will nationalize it. Using Troubled Asset Relief Program funds to write generous checks to needy financial institutions, his administration will demand preferred stock in exchange. Preferred stock gets dividends before common stockholders do. With the massive debt these companies will owe to the government, they will only be able to afford dividends for preferred stockholders — the government, not private investors. So who will buy common stock? And the government will demand that its bills be paid before any profits that might materialize are reinvested in the financial institution, so how will the value of the stocks ever grow? Devoid of private investors, these institutions will fall ever more under government control…”
Wall Street is not stupid. It too sees the future under the Obama watch. A future that has little to do with profit and growth, the engine that stock price gains feed off of. A future where we all will sink to the lowest common denominator. Better learn how to short before they take that away too.
January 25th, 2009 at 9:38 pm
Hi Frugal,
Can you update your page site to: Lost my first million at age 35…
-Mike