New lows!
Posted by Frugal on February 24th, 2009
I didn’t expect new lows to come this fast. Certainly, the April rally is turning into an April rout. Regardless, the stock markets are far from the bottom still.
Both gold and gold stocks seem to have temporarily topped out. The initial downside targets can be $900 on gold, and $32/$33 on GDX. It is still to be seen whether gold will anti-correlate the general stock markets for the current correction. Apparently, they will be synchronized for this time. However, as time goes on, I expect that gold/gold shares to continue to diverge from the general stock markets. The strong correlation of last September to November fall should be increasingly reduced.
Oil and oil shares are quite oversold now. The relief rally is nowhere to be seen. I’m ready to throw in the towels, and yet afraid of selling right at the bottom. I sold out my energy shares January of 2008, but picked them up way too early based on Bill Cara’s opinions. I certainly should have put the stop losses in. Certainly, no one expected such a fast and furious drop in energy.
The markets are not looking good at all. As I have said earlier around the end of last year, playing the counter wave 4 of the Elliot wave is very hard. Now the question is whether we will make a “pseudo” double bottom here in stock markets, or we will slice through support levels and make a new panic low at about S&P 550. This week will be very critical.
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February 24th, 2009 at 11:44 am
Any reason for the 900 target? 90 MA, etc.
Can you also please consider installing the plugin for emailing comment replies, it will be useful.
February 28th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
i’m only hoping my hopeful bottom of dow is 6800. i fear my low scenario of 5600, though.
March 1st, 2009 at 2:46 pm
Hi 1st Million
I enjoyed your blog and would like to include your site on my Blogroll.
I have improved and changed my financial blog from Blogspot to Wordpress with its own unique domain: http://www.wealth-ed.com.
Could you please link your site to mine? (”Get Wealth-ed”)
Thanks
Brian
March 4th, 2009 at 1:08 am
S&P 550 is down another 20% from these levels! It’s going to be ugly, with a Dow at 5600 of so!
Really ugly!
-Mike
March 4th, 2009 at 8:30 am
” picked them up way too early based on Bill Cara’s opinions.” That was your first mistake. Bill Cara is a legend in his own mind. Forget Cara and do your own research,