Stock market yo-yo
Posted by Frugal on March 20th, 2009
From the last lower low till now, I believe the market participants were in the state of paralysis, refusing to throw in towel for a final panic. Sentiments were at bottom, and so we are getting a technical bounce. I repeat again that I believe that this is going to be the last chance for you to clean out stocks from your portfolio. The next wave may be free fall with sheer panic.
My current guess is that this rally may last until about 15th of April at the minimum. Possibly it could last until mid to late May. Beyond that I have serious doubts on the strength of the rally. However, I probably wouldn’t go short until after July/August.
I took the chance of a gold rally to “write down” a major chunk of my home equity shown on my own networth page, since the home prices have fallen quite a bit. I also accounted my past trading gains for this year. I am a bull in gold. Almost anytime I would tell anyone to load up. The recent rise is too sharp. If the gap is filled, I would add some more. The bullish train is probably going to leave the station really soon in my personal opinion. And I’m talking about months, or at least before the end of this year.
Just some miscellaneous things. In my last post, I blasted AIG bonus and politicians for it. I’m surprised by the swift actions from Congress. I guess that they are FINALLY getting the message loud and clear. I don’t think what they did was the best method, since I’m never a supporter for higher taxes. But regardless, it’s a result that I can accept despite the method.
After all, this is just common sense and justice. Paying bonus to people who lost hundreds of billions of dollars? Not on this planet please. By the way, let’s not forget that more billions are still flowing out of US treasury through AIG into pockets of Goldman Sachs and foreign banks. Why on Earth are we saving Mr.Paulson’s Goldman Sachs?? They are less like Lehman Brother who was a bond king. At the minimum, they should deserve 20 cents on a dollar, instead of a FULL dollar that AIG is paying. The IQs for these politicians really really need some improvements.
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March 20th, 2009 at 7:13 pm
We live in crazy times right now, and I really wonder when things are going to get better. Maybe I should just go buy a bunch of gold and hide it in my cellar!
March 21st, 2009 at 12:33 am
I’m confused about your “My Networth” page, you have 5 columns labeled “date” “networth” “company_holdings” “everything_else_besides_home” “cash+leverage”. The last 3 columns should add up to your “networth”, right? However, they add up to 700K+ but your networth is listed as 366K.
What am I missing?
March 21st, 2009 at 4:19 am
Nobody can are buy in 15 april,ruine for economy for this date,the crash believe to began the friday,dow jones to 1000 in few weeks.You should to see index vix.
Bye,regards.
March 21st, 2009 at 6:38 am
I’d like to expand on Matt’s question. What is the scaling factor used in the My Networth ? It’d be nice to know since hitting 1Mil at 33, how well have you been doing since then. I guess they say sometimes it’s harder to keep the fortune.
March 21st, 2009 at 10:52 am
HOLY @#$!….this is exactly the pattern Martin Armstrong has predicted.
March 30th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
Once again you show your lack of intelligence. The tax is illegal and will eventually get thrown out by the supreme court. I’m not arguing wether or not if should of been paid in the first place.
Your predictions of where the market will go in the short term is impossible (no one has ever been able to do this with any long term success). Forecasting is very difficult and typically if you are going to make a forecast it will be out approximately 12 months out. It’s not important what happens in the next 3 to 6 months. If there is something you know that others don’t or you have some information that everyone is looking at differently and you bet they are wrong then maybe you can make predictions about were the market is headed. I doubt very much you have done this type of research.
April 16th, 2009 at 2:50 am
I see gold as a risky investment since it serves no real practical use. Personally I’m moving away from “investments” that lack intrinsic value.
Justheard Jim Rogers on Bloomberg Asia talking about commodities. He recommends oil over gold due to the fact that the IMF is about to take a big dump in their gold reserves.
February 9th, 2010 at 3:50 pm
funny “last chance to clean out” … as of now this was the time to get back in.