Dow back to 10,000 in a week (or tomorrow)?
Posted by Frugal on September 16th, 2009
The strength in this market rally has been beyond amazing. Now I’m fearing that all sectors are going to make a last parabolic hurray before taking a correction, with energy sector (especially natural gas) making a quick catch-up.
My net worth has been undergoing dramatic changes as market rallies further. I have benefited greatly from the high-tech and mining sector advances, while hurting badly in my cross-hedges in the financials and general stock market, not to mention my high cash position in $US dollar is dropping against all other currencies by day. Every component is going to the extreme (big gain or big loss), and I am not entirely sure which positions I should be trimming.
It looks like S&P500 is going to visit 1100 first before correction. However, I have bailed out most of my small positions in the general stock markets months ago back in May to July timeframe.
This week is an option expiry week. Looks like it may be the same story again, with shorts being forced to cover.
The US dollar still holds the key to this market. As soon as it reverses back up, safety bet will be in order, meaning that all anti-dollar bets & stock markets will retreat. However, with both Euro and gold breaking new high overnight right now, I assume that tomorrow will be the same again, with an upward bias.
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September 17th, 2009 at 6:53 am
I’m sorry you are still short the market. Hang in there!
September 17th, 2009 at 10:30 am
You’re right to feel uneasy. Everything, and I mean EVERYTHING is saying this market is due for a large correction down. I’d say start taking your profits now and be ready for the next bottom. “Irrational Exuberance” ring a bell?
I read over on another blog that during the DOT com bust (rather, right before the bust) everybody thought let’s get on this gravy train and then BOOM…oops… Same thing here, parabolic up, going to be a collapse down. Don’t know when, but it’ll happen. Better to be out before the top than to ride the train down.
September 17th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
Pat, he’s net short already, and has been for a while if you read his previous posts.
October 11th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
I’m with you on this one. It’s the same here in the UK. The market is definately seeing signs of an upturn.
Peter J