Comments on: Housing bubbles everywhere

By: qlmycff

qlmycff — Thu, 08 Apr 2010 00:45:32 +0000

hristmas is the biggest festival in the western world， which people all over the Christian countries celebrate. It is on the 25th day of each December. Christians consider it as the birthday of Jesus Christ. But now many customs and habits are beyond religious meaning， The Christmas season begins five or six weeks before the exact holiday. There is always a shopping boom during this period.I will go to abercrombie and fitch shop.I like abercrombie clothing,because abercrombie & fitch is beautiful.my sister like hollister clothing.So it＇s really a happy season for shop owners. bout foreign culture.http://www.abercrombieofficial.org/

By: qlmycff

qlmycff — Thu, 08 Apr 2010 00:37:46 +0000

Abercrombie and Fitch is a great casual clothing brand in the United States that set off a global fashion cyclone. It’s today’s most popular brand among young Americans as well as one of the most fashionable brands for the American college students.Womens Abercrombie Fitch is one of them. Founded in 1892，Abercrombie and Fitch is a century-old brand in New York. Such a kind of young, dynamic and innovative work that walks in the era of cutting-edge, is surprisingly as much as a hundred years of history. Not only that, in recent years, with a high profile, high-quality and ultra-fresh style, it also constantly spilled over from the United States and Canada, resulting in a new index for the world’s new fashion.http://www.abercrombieofficial.org/

By: qlmycff

qlmycff — Thu, 08 Apr 2010 00:35:45 +0000

http://www.abercrombieofficial.org/
Abercrombie and Fitch is a great casual clothing brand in the United States that set off a global fashion cyclone. It’s today’s most popular brand among young Americans as well as one of the most fashionable brands for the American college students.Womens Abercrombie Fitch is one of them. Founded in 1892，Abercrombie and Fitch is a century-old brand in New York. Such a kind of young, dynamic and innovative work that walks in the era of cutting-edge, is surprisingly as much as a hundred years of history. Not only that, in recent years, with a high profile, high-quality and ultra-fresh style, it also constantly spilled over from the United States and Canada, resulting in a new index for the world’s new fashion.

By: qlmycff

qlmycff — Thu, 08 Apr 2010 00:32:47 +0000

http://www.abercrombieofficial.org/
Abercrombie and Fitch is a great casual clothing brand in the United States that set off a global fashion cyclone. It’s today’s most popular brand among young Americans as well as one of the most fashionable brands for the
American college students.Womens Abercrombie Fitch is one of them. Founded in 1892，Abercrombie and Fitch is a century-old brand in New York. Such a kind of young, dynamic and innovative work that walks in the era of cutting-edge, is surprisingly as much as a hundred years of history. Not only that, in recent years, with a high profile, high-quality and ultra-fresh style, it also constantly spilled over from the United States and Canada, resulting in a new index for the world’s new fashion.

By: traineeinvestor

traineeinvestor — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 05:25:38 +0000

While I do not disagree with the thesis in the post (and, in particular, do agree that housing prices cannot rise much faster than inflation indefinitely), I am far from convinced that the analysis is that simple. For example, I have some problems with the statistic that housing is 732% higher than general wages over 200 years:

1. do we know for a fact that housing prices and general wages were “correctly” aligned 200 years ago (whatever “correctly” means in this context)? If house prices were relatively depressed at the time or general wages were relatively inflated then the 732% may be misleading

2. general wages is not the best benchmark for comparison. Owner occupied housing is to a certain extent a luxury rather than a necessity. Although I have no evidence to support my theory, I would expect that it would be more relevant to compare the gains in the excess of general wages above basic living costs (food, clothing) than general wages taken as a whole. If general wages rise faster than the basic cost of living then housing actually becomes more afordable even if it is rising faster than general wages as a whole. A related point is that general wages is the wage of an individual – not the income of a household. The emergence of two income families is not reflected in the comparison and, in developed markets, has been a huge factor since the 1960s

3. housing is driven by a lot of factors, of which general wages is only one. Dempographics, credit supply and planning restrictions all have a big influence on housing prices

4. housing is also driven by local factors – the Detroit example given above is a good one. What is happening in a number of emerging markets is also interesting – the emergence of a growing and increasingly affluent middle class, increased availability of credit and improving legal rights are driving housing price increases

5. final point: how accurately have housing prices and general wages been measured over the last 200 years?

By: Kirk Kinder

Kirk Kinder — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 19:54:34 +0000

@Traciatim: I hear Canadians justify the lofty prices all the time now, which is similar to what many in the US did before the bubble burst. It all comes down to incomes. When housing breaches a healthy ratio of income to mortgage then a price decline is coming. Maybe it won’t be as widespread as the US, but the cities in Canada are certainly looking like a bubble. Look at your own fellow citizen Dave Rosenburg. He discusses Canadian real estate and sees bubbles in the cities. The less populated areas may be fine, just as they are in the US. No bubble in North Dakota or Wyoming.

By: Roger

Roger — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 15:52:45 +0000

And in the 1950′s you could have bought real estate in the thriving town of Detroit. Today many of those houses are effectively worth zero.

By: Rob

Rob — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 01:58:56 +0000

I don’t think it’s greed on the part of brokers, or the real estate companies. It’s the governments behind them. I think China plans on dumping the negatives of their bubble into the U.S. economy in the upcoming months. Watch the Dow hit 8000 this year.

By: Traciatim

Traciatim — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 14:22:18 +0000

There has been piles of talk lately about Canada having a bubble that’s near collapse but I’m not so convinced it will play out the same as it has in the USA. There are two pretty major differences in the way mortgages work here, in that they are not non-recourse mortgages and you must be qualified on the 5 year fixed term no matter what outlandish financing options you are taking (previously it was 3 if I’m remembering correctly). There was also a recent change to down payment requirements on non-owner occupied properties in order to ease off the speculators.

Sure we’ve had some periods of large growth lately thanks to the insanely low interest rates, and that rate has to slow eventually for the average of inflation to be sustained, but to see a nation wide collapse is not as likely . . . not impossible though.

Also, that link you put in is from 2008.