(Easter) Holiday tends to allow markets to advance in lighter volume, and this week is no exception. I’ve never imagined the stock markets to advance to this point in the last year. But I’m glad that I covered all of my short positions but one, right at the bottom of the last dip in February. Sure, I’ve lost some money on those, but it’s not enough to break my bank yet.
On the other hand, I’ve been slowly exiting my long positions on my company stock options. It has been a great ride up, and it has been quite obvious that high-tech is slowly re-taking the market lead since 2000 tech bubble. Don’t expect NASDAQ to be back at 5000 for maybe another 8/9 years, but the continual reshuffling of the tech leadership attests to the power of capitalism & innovation. My options do expire, and unfortunately there is no time to wait for possibly several more profitable growth years down the road in my company.
While everything in stocks looks terrific, bond markets are at the juncture of breaking the inverse head & shoulder pattern, both in 10-year and 30-year treasury markets. This time with Fed exiting the mortgage market (supposedly), finally mortgage rates are rising along with treasury yields. Especially on 30-year bond markets, it almost looks like this year is going to be a down year for people investing in bonds. I have been parking my cash in the stupid 0% to 1% money market fund, for the fear of a rising rate in bonds. If we do break 5% on the 30-year treasury bonds (currently at 4.843%), the prognosis won’t be good for both stock & housing market. In fact, 30-year bonds have only been above 5% for just about 4 months (2006 & 2007) in the last 5 years. I’ve locked my refinancing rate back in the middle of March, right near the last low of the mortgage rates. Good rates may not come back for awhile, and possibly a long while.
If I have any positions in the general stock market, I would sell. I’ve sold all of my general stock markets long time ago or several months ago. My only (big) position & exposure to the general stock market is through my company stock options. While I’m still nervous on this stock rally, my opinions are changing as I observe the strength in this stock rally. I’ve said that this may be the last leg of rally in my last post on market, but I’m indeed impressed by the stock market advances. Possibly my forecast drop in this year won’t be as big as I have feared.
For now, I will just keep a close watch over markets. I don’t know whether this is a head fake during light trading of this spring break week. Although both DIA & QQQQ have their short-term MACD chart turned down, SPY turned down and then turned back up in MACD through making new high. If this is so, then SPY can probably make new marginal high, and the pullback may not be as severe either.
The ARM option mortgage reset wave for now has been held back by Fed’s massive money printing. Eventually the “solution” to the old problem becomes the new problem. The day has not arrived yet, but we shall see.