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  • Market surprise coming?

    Posted by Frugal on March 31st, 2011

    The stock markets have bewildered many. I kept thinking that markets around the world will take a dive towards summer/fall time, but due to Japan earthquake, it appears that a lot of frothiness and overbought conditions have been temporarily resolved. It almost looks like markets can push higher without pulling back in the very short term.

    The biggest concern that I have on markets is still PIIGS in European region. I think the problem would turn worse before getting better. However, it is really hard to predict when PIIGS will hit the market, and my projected timeframe (was from Apr to Jul) appears to be pushed further into future (May/Jun to Sep/Oct).

    Although everyone’s crystal balls are quite fuzzy (including Mish & Barry Ritholtz who is about 50/50 in stock/cash), two things from the Japan earthquake and the mini-crash in May 6th, 2010 has shown that there are (or were) many people who will head to exit in an instant at any signs of troubles. The good thing is that the more we get those mini-hits, the less people would sell out in the future. In fact, maybe the coming market surprise is that there is not going to be a surprise after all, and we stay sort of flat throughout the whole year (with occasional but very few ~10% pull-back or so).

    Best luck,

    Frugal at

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