Posted by Frugal on March 12th, 2013
As I have said last year, stocks will be going up. It’s not going to be a triple top formation on S&P500 as some technicians are saying. It will be a solid new high. In general however, the volatility of the market will still be big, meaning that occasionally, the pullback can be as much as 10% if not more. I look forward to those pullbacks to increase my stake.
I believe the housing bear market that started in 2007 is still with us despite the recent big increase of 10% to 25% in various local markets. Yes, I just bought 4 homes, but that’s going to be just a trade. Economy will continue to be tepid, due to state/city government cut back and international bond market instability. I don’t know what all these talks on QE ending this year are about. As I see it, Fed won’t be raising interest rate nor ending QE this year, possibly the entire 2014. The earliest that I can see is early 2015, and it will be baby steps. I think no more than 3 steps will be applied before the end of 2016. Eventually bond market vigilantes will be back, and Fed will lose the control of the interest rates (if not already).
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