This is a holiday season, and a perfect time for me to divulge an investing secret that I don’t like to share with too many people. Only the ardent followers of my site will get to read it.
Do you know why I bought gold back in 2002 for $305? Was I really that smart, and forsaw the future gold price? NO. Absolutely not. I didn’t know that much about gold, but I remembered and followed the advice of the smartest financial wizard that I ever know of. It’s a lot more important to follow the smartest people than being smart.
Maybe some of you know the name of this guy. I may be writing more about him, but I won’t be spelling his name correctly so that Google Search won’t find my post. There is too many ugly things going behind the scenes that I don’t want to get myself into trouble either.
He is the ONLY person that I know of who has successfully predicted stock market crashes at least twice (and maybe more), 1987 US and 1990s Japan. His prediction came months earlier, and the date was probably down to within a couple of weeks if not days.
So what did this guy say in 1999? Gold’s bottom at about $250, and any price below will be the DEAL of the CENTURY. If I recalled correctly, he also correctly stated in 1999 that gold has PREMATURELY made a false bottom in 1999. It turned out to be a double bottom made in 1999/2001.
I waited for “the deal of century” to appear but it never did, and I couldn’t affirm whether gold had successfully bottomed because his numbers were so right on target. After it rose above to $300, I realized that the tide has already turned, and I bought in. I kept investing in gold, without realizing the alternative unfolding of his prophetic words: tangible assets will keep going up towards 2007. And that was real estate. In fact, Fed successfully diverted the monetary tide much more into real estate than other tangible commodities. Obviously, I was looking for the usual real estate slowdown after a stock market crash. But of course, history only rhymes, but never repeats.
When I read his articles before he went into jail in 2000, one of the article he talked about economic forecasting which is really fascinating. He compared quantum mechanics physics with classical mechanics physics, and how economics seemed to be so unpredictable. But through his studies, he has found that economics is more like classical mechanics. Once a motion is set forth, it is hard to turn it around. Basically, long term economics forecasting IS predictable and forces of the economics were often seeded YEARS earlier.
He made such an impression on me that I wish I remembered every word he said. Unfortunately, this guy was jailed in early 2000, and has been jailed because of contempt of the court (he cannot surrender the “cheated” money to court because all of his assets are confiscated and all of his managed accounts have been conmingled and most likely stolen by a guilty bank). He was jailed for almost 7 years now, and has NOT been given a trial at all. His trial if there is ever one got postponed and postponed and postponed, and in the meantime during these 7 years he simply kept waiting for a fair trial. And this is happening in USA, the land of “free” and “brave”? Just this year, finally he, an old man, admitted guilty by force and still without a trial.
I wish I’m lying, but I’m not. This reads almost like another fabled story. Unfortunately it is true, and so true for this poor and great economist. Both US and Chinese government had tried to obtain his economic forecasting model without success. So he was jailed for “good” probably in the opinion of USA. His predictions on financial markets were too accurate and too scary to the power of authorities. This is like what’s happening in “Enemy of the State” movie.
In his economic models, he also forecasted that there will be an international debt market crisis (and you know which currency, right?) In his economic models, there is a period of pi or 3.14159 *1000 = 3141 days. He said it’s a magical nature number. I fully agree, but having a minor in physics from college, I cannot concur that 1000 is a magic number. I don’t buy his theory of pi * 1000 at all, because I cannot explain how 1000 is a natural number in nature. However, for whatever reasons, 3141 days seems to be the magical period for economics through his studies.
He models within every 3141 days for 3 peaks, with the centered peak being the highest. However, only by collecting ALL international money flow and data from financial markets, and then run through his artificial intelligent computer model will you get the type of asset that will peak or bottom.
Do you know when is the next MAJOR peaking date? It’s Feb 25, 2007. And that has been the major reason that I have stayed put for my precious metal positions in the face of 2006 April’s Hindenberg’s Omen. And the reason is that I believed that the peak in 2007 may be even higher. But of course, I was aware that I didn’t know which asset class/index will be peaking in 2007. After the correction in precious metals in June/July, it started to become clear to me that actually the more likely candidate for peaking is the general stock market. I started to call to PUT money into the general stock market repeatedly through the fall season (well, if you were reading my advice back then). And so many analysts have called a stock market correction since its rise. But I know/believe that the MAJOR stock market correction will not come most likely until late Feb of 2007.
YES, it will be a TOP, and it is still not top YET.
I didn’t know whether it will be a peak date for real estate, or precious metal, or stock market. But I knew that the peak of real estate is either 2007, or summer of 2006 as predicted by UCLA professor Sornette. Certainly, real estate is out of picture. And certainly precious metals are too late to rise up to a NEW record high in my opinion. So, it has to be the STOCK market. And you bet that I will sell for sure. And sorry, I may or may not remind you. An investing secret that is too well-known will simply not work for sure. In fact, I know that there are (at least 2) investing professionals out there well aware of this mystical PI date.
Forget about 4-year election cycle, or 8-year cycles. I believe this 8.6 year cycle is more accurate than anything else. 1987 stock market crash fell on the EXACT PI date if I recall correctly.
If you want, you can google this guy. His full name is gnortsmra nitram spelled backwards. Again, don’t put his name in my comment section. I will delete them, since google also pick up words in the comments. It’s a little hard to google things out on him. You may need to add other relevant words, or else you won’t get the right things come up. After 7 long years, it’s becoming exceedingly difficult to find his written articles from the past.
And currently since precious metals will not peak in 2007, I believe that they will have more bull runs after that.
By the way, it may not be a game over for stocks. I tentatively believe that 2009, the next significant date in his model, will be more important peak date in terms of absolute price (but maybe not in relative price to gold).
I would pay more than $1000 for his research if it’s available. But now I’m kind of on my own, reading thousands of articles every year (about 15+ article a day), while watching various markets and observing closely where the money is flowing. After several years of investing in gold, I have become convinced many of the arguments made by gold bugs and peak oil people. I don’t know whether there will be an international debt market crisis as once predicted by this guy, but I can definitely conjure up ways and reasons of how it could happen, especially through peak oil theory.
People like to be optimistic about future, and take a more linear view on things rather than understanding cycles. But between peak oil and global warming, I would really much prefer peak oil. Truly, peak oil will save the Earth, despite the potential economic havoc that it could cause. More on this later, until next time….