Robert Kiyosaki: A Smart Investor

Making predictions is a tough business, but learn from this master of words, Robert Kiyosaki (RK), on making “accurate” predictions.

What does this guy think of the recent stock market right now?

When my book “Rich Dad’s Prophecy” was released in 2002, most financial newspapers and magazines trashed it because I discussed a looming stock market crash. Ironically, much of what I predicted in the book is coming true earlier than I expected.

In fact, you can almost use RK as a pretty good contrarian indicator. Back in March of 2006, when I read RK recommending buying gold/silver, I really got a chill. I knew very well that he is not part of the smart money. And when the dumb money of the mass people come in, a significant top could be established. I didn’t follow my intuition, but rather I held out hoping for the PI date to come.

Do you still remember what books were published in bookstore near 2000 stock market mania? It was ‘Dow 36000″ and the like. Well, RK published his bearish book in year 2002 (when stock market bottomed), and now he wants to take credit for his “prediction”??? Don’t you think that if he is such a smart investor, he should have been publishing “SPY 1500″ to help people buying stocks at the bottom rather than the other way around?

I really wonder how much gold/silver RK is buying. I stand by my words, and I disclose my stake (3/20/07) by sectors here again (temporarily not available on my networth page, but I hope to make it available again as soon as possible on a daily basis):
Metals 57.5%
Energy 34.6%
Misc. 7.9% (water, agriculture, consumer staples)
Silver/Metals = 26%
My portfolio above is 61.24% of my total net worth.

For someone who never tells you what he is buying, and then tells you what he “did” with 20/20 hindsight, I would not take such “advice”. If you can really make some real money by reading RK’s books, I would be really surprised. No dates or concrete methods for any investing advice. Most of the things that he talks about are hard to achieve, making you to believe that “yeah, that’s why I’m not rich”.

A prediction without a date or a timeframe is usually not very useful. At the minimum, I’m willing to be wrong and add some dates or timeframe for my own expectation about markets. I think rather than playing to be always “smart” like RK, it is more pragmatic for you as readers if I take the chance to be wrong, and be battered by all of your comments.

Since RK has come out and said it again, I presume that by following contrarian thinking, stock market this year may not fall as hard. Unfortunately, I think his “glow” is waning, so this contrarian indicator is probably not as good as before.

I do believe that what he describes in that prophecy book may come true with some chance, but most probably NOT this year. I have marked his own words in boldface. He said it’s coming true earlier than he expected, so the best interpretation is that the scenarios in his book should be unfolding right now. We will see whether he is right or I’m.

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